2009 Predictions…Stop The Insanity!

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  • on December 29th, 2008

At 12-01 AM January 1, 2008, my pal Andy Swan Twittered that ’2008 was not living up to all the hype’. Priceless and how right he was.

Here is a perfect look back at 2008 . All great but my fave part:

We bailed out everybody in 2008 and I think it’s only fair that we have two S&P’s, the nationalized one and the free market one. After all the largest institutions took money, note to self, call my Congressman and Chairman Cox in the morning and make suggestion. The banks bellied up to the bar and if you weren’t a bank you just filled out a simple form and became a bank. Piece of cake, even Goldman Sachs did it. Who’s the schmuck that tore down Glass-Steagall in he first place? I need to find that guy. I remember saying as a green kid that banks know nothing of the brokerage business and that it would fail miserably. Because of the bailout I am now a proud owner of all the big banks, I hedge my position almost everyday by being short, and will continue to be through 2009. John Thain was at Goldman, went to the NYSE, went to Merrill diluted the begeezus out of it, said everything was grand, sold to Bank America and then acted like a brat last week demanded a $10 million bonus. Great job Biff, I have your back. He’s another one.

The year 2008 was in a word…PATHETIC! Actually, F#$@#*king PATHETIC!

The worst run brand in the world is now…AMERICA!

I have made predictions in 2006 , 2007 and 2008 . I KILLED it all three years. BUT, the year 2008 was a trainwreck for my stock portfolio though because I am a trend follower. By the end of January, my picks were ALL worthless and I had completely gone into retreat. That saved my year, but my ghastly stock picks live on in the blogosphere.

If the trend is your friend, than 2009 is easy…keep selling! Predicting a change of trend has got to be the hardest thing to do and only a lucky/frequent guesser is right. Not worth the time, money or aggravation. I have the scars on my wallet and back from all the times I stupidly try catching trend changes. I live with it because I am human. Blogging is the way I am kept honest and try to improve.

I could give you hundreds of reasons WHY the global stock markets will remain horrific in 2009 because the evidence all lines up perfectly (mostly from our government making horrific short-term decisions ), but I won’t. I watch the all-time high list and try to stay positive for when the turn comes.

Since I am uncomfortable short selling I mostly watch.

I can’t resist offering you one prediction for 2009 and that is predictions will reach all-time highs. Flexibility is what people need to embrace and what I will continue to blog about that heading deep into my fourth year.

When the markets are trending up, all I need is the all-time high list. We are a long way from OK on that front .

For a good look at flexibilty in the markets I follow Brian Shannon and FLY as you know. In 2008, I also became friendly with and a fan of UpsideTrader . There are hundreds of other bloggers I read, but I have learned to keep things simple in my short list.

I like reading opinionated people for sure, but not when it comes to the markets. Prices never lie. Kudlow and other pundits LIE. Right to your face. No accountability.

If you read this blog you see me bleed. You remind me of my mistakes but also encourage me with your kind comments. Thanks for that.

When all else fails in 2009, remember you can make a choice. I choose to stay positive .

Now STOP reading 2009 predictions and go to work selling something (just not to me until next week).

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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