A Down 10 Percent Day in Our Near Future?

Maybe it’s because I spent the day interviewing the top Securities attorneys on option backdating the Countrywide (CFC) crime scene, and the possible CDO implosion backlash, but I am in need of a stiff drink, or 10. I am pretty nervous here short-term about the market.

I am searching for a good way to make a 500-1,000 point drop bet

Let me know an interesting way to make that bet for 45 days.

Posted on November 9th, 2007 | Category: General | Comments

Shane

And you wonder why you get blasted for being a chicken little? Puts are a beautiful thing for the scared/cautious. Remember when you kept talking about how Apple had moved too fast and you were taking some off the table. Of all the stuff you took off the table, how many of the stocks took a dive and how many kept going. What would have happened if you just stayed long and strong and just stayed put? My guess is that you will always do better by staying with the companies you believe in. Don't worry about the markets but rather how the company is performing

howard lindzon

talking technicals. I am. just talking out loud to calm myself.

howard lindzon

mike - the interview is coming up in a few weeks. smart guy. handling class action suites against options backdating firms

Talking Technicals

wait for the drop and then go long, like you have been doing. a trend player, like you, should remain true to your mantra. turning tail and fearing a drop is best left for the bears at this point. take advantage of what you know best. you did not get here by being a scaredy-cat. short-term lumps beore long-term gains.

good luck.

Trader Mike

Is that interview gonna show up on WallStrip/Naked Putz?

Bidask

Short the AUD/USD sunday evening ...reverse and go long monday when the dow is at 12,500...then hold until Dec 2nd. Then short it again...

bocagirl

Looking at buying some protective puts, for example:

BA Dec 95 put
CAT Dec 70 put
XOM Dec 85 put

Also undecided about buying GS puts.

Bruce

give some money to your sworn enemies - fleck, kass, tice, chanos et al

or pray to your god & she may answer [ if you pray correctly] .. if not, you're fucked

Steve

The put backspread is a good idea, though the risk of smoldering in a trading range is pretty high I think. Only the present trading range is +2%; -2%.

I like to buy an out of the money put on the Q's, then raise cash to about 20% and buy 15% of the portfolio in equal amounts of QID and SDS. Its more of an insurance move than a win ticket, but it works great at protecting the jewels.

Broker A

It's only silly green paper with ugly faces on them.

Consider that when worrying, like a pussy, about bullshit crashes.

Bill Luby

For the situation you describe, I recommend a put backspread. If you are wrong and the markets bounce from here, you will probably make a small amount. If you are correct and the markets crash, you have the potential to big win. You lose out if the markets decide to go into a trading range. If your time frame is 45 days, then the December puts would look good, perhaps using the QQQQs, which are the most liquid of options.

For more info on put backspreads, try:
http://www.optionsxpress.com/educate/strategies...

If you want to buy a lottery ticket that will only pay off in an emergency, consider out of the money VIX calls, perhaps the 35s (which had a fair amount of activity today) or the 40s, which would probably only pay off in a meltdown.

Good luck!