Apple…Bull and Bear

  • Posted by
  • on September 4th, 2007

I am long Apple (congrats on another all-time high today), and therefore will not post a bearish case :) . Overpriced is not a bearish case. Go ahead and short it, you may catch a 20 percent move again. Big woop. The only bearish case is too much love which Eric from Blackstar (long Apple) describes below (I am more interested in the fact that Eric left his home).

I just got back from a week in San Jose. Kids there don’t even know what a PC is. It’s all Apple, all the time, everywhere. One of my cousins quit Adobe and now works for Apple. I went to a 50 person dinner with a bunch of Persians. There was a pile of i phones and 1 Motorola Razor (the razor was mine). Coffee shops: mac’s. Airport: mac’s. Light rail: Mac’s. Even my dad was shoving original apple stock certificates from 1986 in my face.

Probably the top.

A real good long term bullish cash is made hysterically by ‘Fake Steve Jobs’ and that’s that the TV networks don’t get it . Steve Jobs and the ‘fake’ Steve Jobs are patient, so the slow painful gut wrenching leak from network TV to companies like Apple is fine with him. My fave part:

Here’s what I tell them. Friends, you run a television network. Now let’s think about this. What the fuck is a television network? It’s a system of affiliates designed to help carry a broadcast signal across the wide continent of America on airwaves and into television sets owned by millions of people. In essence, you are in the distribution business. In the second half of the twentieth century you had the great good fortune to be granted a kind of limited monopoly over the distribution of a very valuable commodity. There were only so many airwaves, hence only so many networks. There were way more advertisers than there were channels to carry their advertising. So you sat there with your choke-hold on the garden hose, controlling the flow of programming and getting fatter and fatter and fatter.

It was a wonderful system. For you anyway. Except that it had one huge flaw. Which is that for you guys, the middlemen, to get rich, you needed to fuck over the people at both ends of the value chain — the consumers who had no choice in what they watched and spent years being fed mountains of dog shit, and the producers of content who were at your mercy and had to negotiate with this tiny number of networks who operated, let’s be honest here, as a kind of cartel.

I don’t think it’s the top until somebody is actually ARRESTED for praying in front of an Apple store :) :

Disclosure – Long Apple

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