There Will Be Bounces…

The best thing I can say about the S&P right now is ‘there will be bounces’.

Here is a chart of the S&P that caught my eye:

It’s not the end of the world, but conditions are pretty ripe for bounces to be weak and a nasty stock market.

Interest rates are rising, walls are being built, tariffs are happening and like I mentioned yesterday, Zuckerberg invited regulation into technology which is the biggest part of the S&P.

Markets, like the people that trade them, get tired.

I get my macro news from stock and market prices and these prices are making me cautious.

Now is a good time to be working on the micro, whether it’s sales calls, hiring or raising money.

Focusing on the macro and reading headlines in this environment will zap your energy at the worst possible time.

Hope this helps.

Mark Zuckerberg Throws Technology Under The Bus

Mark Zuckerberg was pretty chatty last night on CNN.

He blamed the Russians of course, but did not stoop to blaming Well Fargo or Ben Carson’s wife.

My big takeaway is that he could care less about being regulated. They were caught and they had likely simulated all this out.

Relatively, regulation is no big deal to Zuckerberg. It will keep big competition at bay and raise the cost of startups wishing to compete.

Like the bank executives and Bernie Madoff did to small money managers (raise the cost of doing business), Zuckerberg just did to technology.

I liked this piece from James Allworth titled ‘What The F*** Was Facebook Thinking‘.

The big venture capitalists have moved on from this space into outer space anyway.

Facebook is thrilled to be another Microsoft and I wont be surprised to see Warren Buffett show up soon if the price dips much more.

Being Judged, WITCH HUNTS and The Stock Market

Before I get started, make sure you watch the new Ricky Gervais comedy special on Netflix. Ellen and I laughed out loud a bunch of times. The bit where he talks about his floating nuts in the tub had us in stitches…though I am not sure how Ellen knew why that was so damn funny!

Onward..

I get judged everyday.

I’m not talking about my kids talking about the mole on my nose or my weird receding hairline.

I get judged by LP’s that have or might invest in our fund.

I get judged by my stock ideas and my blog posts and my tweets.

I can’t imagine running a public company and being judged by the price of the stock everyday.

In the early years of running my hedge fund I was terrible at dealing with being judged against the S&P.

I would like to think that every nightmare situation with the press or a hater or a tense situation could be deflected with humor and have tried, but it generally digs a bigger hole.

So..over the years…I have tried to judge LESS. I hope in judging less I will bring the good karma of being judged LESS.

I love this thought from Naval – ‘escape competition through authenticity‘.

The year 2018 is a challenge to my ‘judge less’ lifestyle, but the year 2018 is going to be punishing on people, companies and brands that are not authentic.

It is the year of the witch hunt. People are in a rage.

I have written about witch hunts all the way back to 2006 on this blog, but 2008 was the last time it really felt this witchy! Here is what I was writing at that time. In 2013, I reflected on the witch hunt and ‘perp walks’ and the opportunity ahead in financials. The bank executives, like Zuckerberg, even Trump, but probably not Jared, will walk away just fine.

In hindsight…witch hunts do not generally happen at the top.

I do wonder what Zuckerberg finally will say when he does chime on on the Cambridge Analytica fiasco.

If he asked me or I was in control of his Twitter account I would simply say ‘Sorry and BTFD’ than announce an acquisition of Shopify to refocus Facebook on the business of selling everything but your data.

Disclosure – Long Shopify.

Momentum Monday…Will Facebook’s Faceplant Carry Over?

Today Facebook shed nearly $40 billion.

I figured it was a good time to do a ‘Momentum Monday’ with Ivanhoff to riff on what it could mean for the markets, momentum and tech in general (15 minutes long and 1 minute of small talk before we dive into charts):

I do not own Facebook and it’s not even on my 8 to 80 list. I like Instagram and appreciate Whatsapp but have never been a core Facebook user.

Facebook has never been NOT EVIL. We have always been the product. They are a digital Equifax/Equifax so nothing about them and our data would surprise me. They might want to change their name to ‘Foot-in-Mouthbook’.

I think the take of the day is that Facebook will not be in the race to $1 trillion or may never get there, despite dominating the globe:

I don’t think anything Facebook does hurts Amazon or Apple in their race to $1 trillion. These Amazon numbers are really insane.

The Facebook press nightmare is also relatively good for Twitter – which is a mean neighborhood to hang out in but knows much less about you. The politicians love Twitter because it’s the easiest place for ‘thoughts, prayers and lies’.

I think this is a really big day for Blockchain and decentralization, but in a bear market for crypto you will not get rewarded as quickly as last year.

As for the rest of technology and the markets… just tune into the show and listen or watch.

PS – For Facebook bulls…Equifax crashed 30 percent after their big data breach and they have recovered 50 percent of the crash in the last 6 months. Equifax did this without having an addictive product.

PSS – I like BOX CEO Aaron Levie take on the Facebook fiasco:

We’re in the very early stages of a major shift in software. As more of the world goes digital, the responsibility of tech companies grows exponentially. The days of arguing that (and acting like) tech companies are merely platforms and pipes are behind us.

PSSS – Ben Thompson has a great take on the Facebook fiasco.

First They Came For Your Crypto…

Before I get into it…this made me smile:

Now to the markets…

Ramp Capital summed up this weekend of crypto and NCAA Basketball pretty well:

My bracket is more rekt than my dad’s crypto portfolio

REKT is a real crypto term…so is HODL. No wonder the money is being taken away!

Sadly for millennials, this crash is happening at the same time that Avocado prices are surging

The ‘millennial crypto’ bear market is really happening. In January, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and tokens passed $800 billion. Today it dropped below $280 billion.

I have no idea when the bear market ends, though I did start buying back some Ethereum below $600 and $500 this weekend.

The big question is whether this crypto bear spreads to stocks.

Take a look at the Russell Microcap Index which is at all-time highs:

Risk remains on, just very mobile.

Here Comes Stocktoberfest New York City – April 25th

Stocktoberfest is coming… April 25th in New York

When Ian took over as CEO at Stocktwits a couple years back he said he wanted to keep Stocktoberfest going.

I explained how hard these shows were (at least on me) and that if I only had to show up, I was thrilled.

I do still get to speak.

Pierce Crosby (he leads data sales and business development for Stocktwits) has taken the content baton from me and has done a fantastic job getting great people to come speak and share ideas.

This years speaker lineup (scroll down on the link above) is the best ever as Stocktwits looks ahead at the future of markets. Great venture capitalists, investors, traders, quants, hedgies, reporters and founders of cool fintech startups will be taking the stage.

Of course, everyone will be sharing their favorite ideas. Last year for example, it was Fred Wilson who dropped Ethereum on the audience. It was $40 (now $600).

I have a $100 discount code (click here) so come join us if you are in the city.

Technicals and Chart Art

I saw this from my friend Brian Shannon a great shorter term trader and lover of charts.

charts are criticized for “perfectly predicting the past” by close-minded market participants who cling to stale financial reports. have an open mind and use the best of both, nothing wrong w identifying a strong company via fundamentals and then timing the entry w technicals

I’m with Brian.

I let the all-time high list do most of my fundamental research.

I am always explaining my public markets strategy to people. I love doing that because it forces me to hone things.

Most investors or traders will never get comfortable with my style. Thank goodness. Less competition.

When I talk about high price, trend following, buying high to sell higher…I lose almost everyone.

But what about fundamentals…but what about valuation…but Hillary…

The best stocks of all-time defy all valuation metrics and I have no rebuttal for ‘but Hillary’ (other than walking away).

It’s repetition and process. I am so lucky to love what I do.

There will always be posers in life and on the all-ime high list, so you still have to walk the streets, spend some money, make calls, read smart people and learn to trust your eyes and ears.

Epic Day at Riviera

I took most of the day off today to play golf with Fred Wilson, Max and his best friend Matt Moss at Riviera. I was hoping to run into Larry David, but it was not to be.

Here we are on the 18th with the awesome clubhouse and green in the distance…

Only Matt had his A game and he carded a 33 on the back 9. I cut a deal to be his agent. My game is receding quicker than my hairline. I had an ugly 4 on 18 for an 89.

It’s 2018 so if you own tech stocks, it’s dumb to watch the markets and work. You just let it ride.

JC has a great post on the subject of the historic breakout in technology stocks.