I love when we have companies nobody would sispect on Wallstrip. It’s a reminder that Apple, RIMM, Oil, Gold are not the only stocks you can own.
It is a market of stocks and you should be focused on price leaders to learn about real leaders.
Your only decision after that is…can it continue.
Despite the real estate mess and credit crisis, Ventas Inc VTR , has rocked. From Google Finance and Reuters:
Ventas, Inc. a real estate investment trust (REIT) with a portfolio of seniors housing and healthcare-related properties in the United States and Canada. As of December 31, 2007, this portfolio consisted of 519 assets, 253 seniors housing communities, 197 skilled nursing facilities, 42 hospitals and 27 medical office, and other properties in 43 states and two Canadian provinces, including 77 seniors housing communities the Company acquired from Sunrise Senior Living Real Estate Investment Trust (Sunrise REIT) on April 26, 2007. With the exception of its medical office buildings (MOBs) and 79 of Ventas, Inc.’s seniors housing communities that are managed by Sunrise Senior Living, Inc. (Sunrise) pursuant to long-term management agreements, it leases these properties to healthcare operating companies under triple-net or absolute-net leases, which require the tenants to pay all property-related expenses.
It has not paid to think about real estate for one reason here…DEMAND. As Julie notes in the show, demographics should only get better. An interesting stock indeed (no position).
Steel, Logistics (transportation without the hard assets – check out Landstar – LSTR), basic chemicals, agriculture, oil and Gas, Priceline, Mastercard, Biotech and Medical…Maybe the averages mark some time in the volatility, but many stocks are poised to go higher.
Eric from Blackstar sent a list of his buys over last night as well:
Have you seen the piggy homebuilders lately? You should as they have been jiggy (like the rhymes?). Some have tripled from their lows. That’s not just a bounce at this point or just short covering, it’s confidence from institutions that there WILL be survivors. It’s not an all-clear signal that the housing crisis is over mind you.
I do find it funny that when Meritage (MTH) was at $90, the local AZ papers were not discussing the possibility that the boom could end. Now, the paper just talks about the death of Arizona real estate. That’s good by the way for investors at least.
I am putting my positive cap on to find 5-10 stocks for my account – not more triple inverse ETF’s. I can’t live on Apple, Neogen, First Solar, Gold and Oil forever.
This is my first warning to ease off the pedal just a bit. I intend too.
I am tempted by the monsterous all-time highbreakouts in ESLR and CSUN today. I will stare for now and add them to my wish list based on their performance after the next crack.
Other than my ususal predictions for 2008 (see 2007 and 2006 , here as well ), I am taking some time off to think. Thinking helps. Time away helps.
Here were my theme predictions for 2007. No wonder I had my best year ever. I listened to myself.
1. Commodities – For 2007 my focus will be more on water.
2. Mergers – a continuation of this trend. Bigger and Bolder and more egotistical than ever!
3. More IPO’s – I think entrepreneurs will show more balls this year and stop building to sell and start building to BE SOMEBODY! Update – Here is a recap of 2005 and 2006 IPO numbers.
4. Handheld Wars – NOT Music – Apple won that!
5. Internet – I will defer to Fred Wilson’s posts on 2007 themes. You should too.
6. Healthcare – This area of the stock market is sure to have some major winners. Sleep, Biotech, Infectious Disease. It would be great to see some major breakthroughs in 2007.
7. Inflation or Deflation – While that ridiculous debate continues that no one wins, I will focus on how can I make money off the areas of inflation and the areas of deflation in the global systems.
8. The Tapped Consumer – I am tapped. The average consumer is way past tapped. I am not shorting stocks, but I am tempted in stocks that are a play on the tapped consumer.
9. Porn – No explanation needed .
10. Broadband Internet Video. Yes – Fred is the internet guru in my eyes, but I feel I have some expertise here and there is likely to be some major busts and new winners in this space in 2007 and beyond.
I may post occassionally but I am done with the market talk for a few weeks. If you are looking to ‘burglar’ my house, we just installed an alarm and a vicious fake barking service. It’s all family time in Toronto.
You know where I stand on stocks. I recently blogged that the best reason for the market to go up was that it had not gone down.
Today we got that.
The breakouts were thick in my portfolio:
AAPL, CPHD, DSCP, IBKR, AUXL, NDAQ, CME, GAIA (huge day, blogged it yesterday), ESRX, INFA, PANL, LIFC, RICK, SLW, ORA to name a few.
That is a lot of all-time highs that you have never heard of in a simple portfolio. Next year is going to be even better for all of us on this blog.
I still think IPO’s are coming. How great is it that the best IPO’s are now dutch auctions (screw you Merrill and Goldman). Trust me, it’s good. Google, Interactive Brokers and now Netsuite (N) have had hugely successful Dutch Auctions. The strong, have some pull.
Stephen Roach and the bears will tell you tthat a recession is upon us, but they are looking at the same stuff the bulls are looking at. They just suck at reading the tea leaves. We don’t.
Here are the problems according to the bears…The XLE hit an all-time high, E-Trade is bust and Countrywide is bust. The market won’t break on that news. We absorbed it. It is going to take something new. Something even the bears don’t see because they are staring at their screens.
Don’t get stuck focused on the averages. There is some great strength showing depite the massive energy tax. It’s a huge tax no doubt. China is likely a bubble, likely the biggest ever, but there is no timing it.
Be optimistic. Keep the comments and conversation coming. It keeps me motivated.
Three I own (GAIA, IBKR and AUXL), one I keep buying and will add more tomorrow (IBKR), one I hold as I have no idea if the product really works (don’t want to know) and the other I stare in at disgust for missing. Lot’s of different sectors with good action despite the market trading sideways to down.
I have had ample time to buy Salesforce.com (CRM). We Wallstripped it, it was on my watch list, it tanked, and I never grabbed it although constantly blogging I would . Now I just watch stubbornly. It’s at $64 today, up 40 percent since the Google Alliance. I can’t pull the trigger. I should. Pat of my problem there is I know it’s a great product because all the companies I am invested in are using it and love it, but I have never tried it. I don’t have the passion that others have.
Interactive Brokers is turning into my biggest position and I have been on it from the IPO. In hindsight, the low 20’s would have been a sweet add, but I passed and have been nibbling on the way up. Tomorrow I will add some more shares. It has been an underperformer but today strongly moved to an all-time high close. Their business is booming and I love their product. i use it everyday. It just works. It is definitely not for everybody, but for the professional money manger and trader…YOWZA. It is not melting down like the other brokers, so it is likely being lumped in with the likes of exhanges like CME and ICE and NDAQ (long them all). It is overdue for a Wallstrip.
Auxilium (AUXL) must really be helping men and women . There are many weenies who are happy the cream exists. Today it hit another all-time high. Here is the old Wallstrip when the stock was $14. Other than growing sales and a doubling of the stock price, not much has changed in weenieville since February:
Gaiam (GAIA) has many haters in the real world but none in the stock world. It hit another all-time high today above $27. It has been volatile, but I have been in since around $19 and selling a little on the way up . I love the spiritual lifestyle trend. It’s expensive, but pretty harmless. A good combination for the world we live in today.
While everybody stares at Google, RIMM, Amazon, Apple and Financial stocks…other shit is going on. Some good shit. Some different shit. That’s why you watch all-time highs people.
Or you can read Stephen Roach and buy Prozac to deal with the coming recession/depression.
Disclosure- Long AUXL, RIMM, AMZN, AAPL, IBKR and GAIA
RIMM was great, but how about that RICK’s . Looks like all RICK dancers carry blackberries…probably Pearls. Where they put them is your guess.
Rick’s had another blowout freaking quarter and the stock is at another all-time high. CBS hates me talking about this stock, but what can I do. Its our best performing Wallstrip stock. When Phil explained the story to me early in the year he said they would become the Starbucks of Boobies. I hope not, Starbucks is down 50 percent since he said that. Maybe RICK’s should just buy Starbucks and change the dress ode for employees.
Tonight’s call is just like the last, which was just like the one before only everybody is three months older and more drunk.
If I was not counting calories I would be tipping back some Scotch to another great quarter.
Disclosure – Long RICK and yes long Starbucks too.
It should be a DREAM DAY for bears – Dell is down 15 percent (it deserves to be lower by the way). They are all on the phone with themselves talking about the end of the world. They have no idea that Dell was an irrelevant business to everyone but their employees, like back in 1999.
THE BEARS are always too adamant. They never are happy with FAST, Quick profits. They will break your accounts despite being right occassionally because the end of the world is a sucker’s bet.
So are 10 team parlays (3-team parlays for that matter), but people love them.
The bull advantages are just too great.
Even though we know Dell sucks and Sirius sucks and Countrywide is broken and Citibank is a mess, the market screams higher today. Even if you are right on these, what’s the freaking point. It’s better just to make fun of them and the diligent shareholders screaming value than waste you time, energy and money gaming their next move.
The bears/shorts need to start thinking less and being more lazy to really make money.
Money managers, especially the big ones, are the laziest motherf$%ckers on the planet. They KNOW they can’t beat the indexes and all the ‘real’ money goes into marketing and legal.
When the market is good, the big money monagaers, the obnes that dominate the market price action these last 10 years, they buy the leaders, when the market is bad, they buy the leaders and when the market is going nowhere, they buy the leaders. If they raise too much money, they hire 20 marketing people to sell more of their crap fund and just two junior analysts to justify buying Dell and CFC as value plays.
If the market gets bad for too long…they sell the leaders last to raise cash because that’s where they can raise it. That’s why the leaders always get killed near the end of a selloff. That’s why you watch the all-time high list in bad markets. Outlazy, the lazy.
Too watch anything BUT the leaders is therefore too much work and that’s why the strategy works. The smart people are too smart and they are not watching the right stocks.
Here is what the dumb, lazy people (including myself) are printing money in day after day.
Apple – AAPL
Rick’s Cabaret – RICK
RIMM
Dolby – DLB
Chipotle’s – CMG
Google – GOOG
First Solar – FSLR
Don’t overthink it. These companies all absolutely own their categories. Money managers are lazy. Especially the big ones which truly dominate market price action. They either own crap like Dell or the all-time high list. Your advantage is you are not an idiot and you have limited capital, and therefore don’t have to own Dell.
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