A few weeks ago I wrote a post called ‘Downsize…Focus…Pounce ‘ that was aimed at getting people to focus – on the optimistic.
The first two ideas that I posted on watching, ideas that I went long – Qualcomm and Biotech ETF’s, have now both exploded.
I had no special insight or inside information. I don’t manage a billion dollars and don’t comb SEC filings. I definitely don’t call CEO’s or look at investment bank research.
I look at symbols and price and I do it every day (have done so diligently for 15 plus years – 10 plus as a hedge fund manager). Watching the price action and looking for strength attracted me to the ideas.
With Qualcomm today settling with Nokia and surging to post bubble highs and Genentech getting a bid, one thing is reinforced:
MONEY LEAVES FOOTPRINTS!
For the average investor, following price can lead to big gains.
Just as important for the average investor:
Following news can lead to big losses.
Don’t make this stuff too complicated. Leave that to putz’s like me.
Last week I pointed out that the Biotechs looked like they would lead if we went higher, because they were holding up so well into the meltdown. QDEL, AUXL and BBH were my longs at the time.
I mentioned BBH (an ETF) and Eric mentioned IBB (an ETF with wider representation) in the comments. I bought both and Twittered the buys last week.
Great – now the French are the leaders in cancer research. That does not make me feel all warm and fuzzy, but the foreign buyouts will continue as our dollar weakens.
If the credit markets improve, expect hundreds of gigantour deals.
Despite my give up of milk, gas remains a problem in our house.
Despite the economic slowdown (or the one they talk about on tv), gas and oil prices remain strong.
Eric just sent me a list of energy stocks busting or ready to bust to new highs…they include UPL, KWK, COG, TXCO (I own it), DVN, CHK, UPL, BBG and others.
Elsewhere, I am adding PPO if it clears yesterday’s high price on the close, a strong IPO that I can’t explain so just read about it. I love reading about membranes in the morning.
As I have been saying for a while, Biotech remains very strong for the most part with lot’s of names you have never heard of on the all-time high list…AUXL (Wallstripped and I own a little still), PHRM, BMRN are a few.
Chinese Medical stocks continue to rip. I guess that makes sense. Check out the wild moves and rides you can have in CMED and CHDX . I need to work them in to my portfolio at some point.
I have been catching up o txaes and other business and lazy with leadership ideas of late so thanks Eric for pointing all these out.
it’s not all bad out there if you own the right stocks.
It is worth speculating which sector will survive the bear. I have speculated in the past that it would be niche biotechs. Solar, China, Oil could continue, but it is ususally some different sector that leads the way. I am surprised by how many we have covered on Wallstrip. Today, it’s Gilead’s turn for Julie .
‘Boca Girl’ says it is their diagnostic test for ‘Staph’ infections. They have my attention with all their big medical words on their website . The website is pretty lame beyond that.
Financially, the company is no great shakes but that is typical for most biotech companies. Expensive to own. Risky. Prone to wild rides because of what they do and analysts inability to measure it consistently if at all.
What I do, as I have done with HNSN, CYNO ESRX, GPRO, DSCP (yesterday), QDEL, LIFC and AUXL is take a one-third position and give the stock some room. Now that they are all listed out in order, this must be the most medical/biotech stocks I have ever owned at one time. They have all been good to me, which is even more rare.
Don’t let me down Cepheid!
Brian has a good look at the technical picture and talks about possible entries. He thinks I am chasing it here. Time will tell, but I may be adding a few shares lower. No worries:
The cancer trend is an awful one, but one where the biggest payday’s lie for the winning companies. Lot’s of money has flowed into Onyx Pharmnaceuticals in the last few month. Here is their website .
Anyone who reads this blog knows that I try and stay away from biotech. I own QDEL, AUXL and ESRX, all Wallstripped and ON FIRE by the way. GPRO (also wallstripped) has been the weakest performer in the biotech part of my portfolio.
Onyx is one that I am really considering.
The problem is, we have seen this wild behavior in the stock before back in 2004. The stock stopped this time right at the highs of 2004.
The FDA news flow has been very positive and the war on cancer has never been more important. I am not sure if I should add on this weakness or further strength above $60.
Brian looks to shed some buy/sell light on the stock with his technical look:
I am holding off until I have a little more time to watch the stock action. i don’t mind paying up in the meantime if that’s the price for a little more homework.
Rich people don’t want to die. That’s money, especially as the have’s separate themselves from the have not’s like never before.
There are too many eyes on Amgen (AMDN) and Genentech (DNA), the ‘bellwethers’ of Biotech. ISRG is the new medical/biotech leader (I hate not owning that). Equipment, pharmacy, lifestyle, skin and beauty trumps drugs in this latest medical/biotech boom.
Even Medtronic (MDT) – which I am eyeing IS ON FIRE. It makes sense for them to open some steka and egg fast food joints to promote their heart stents. Better yet. Fly’s Buffalo Wing (BWLD) chain to put some ooomph in stent sales on location.
In the meantime, I have been quietly adding medical and biotech stocks to the point that I am freaked out. It just sneaks up on you sometimes. I am freaked out because I have never felt fake boobies from Allergan (I have no life), actually I felt Lindsay’s freebies, and have never used any of the products of the stocks I own in this sector (see below).
ADN, ESRX, GPRO, LIFC, AUXL, QDEL, CYNO are all stocks that I am long and have blogged about my entries. Lifecell (LIFC) is the only one NOT to be Wallstripped but I have pushed it in the production loop. The above names are all are acting superb. If the biotech boom is for real, the price action is telling you that you can’t just focus on cancer and heart anymore.
I mean ‘tissue replacement ‘ is on fire people. I will continue to add medical and biotech breakouts until I get smacked… which will definitely happen.
