I am long PAAS, GOLD, SLW, GLD and Canada so happy, but really…
This is not going to end well for so many people.
I don’t read enough or know enough about gold to truly understand the move.
New wealth loves shiny things. Gold has generally risen during periods of inflation, global instability and a weak dollar, but history has never been kind to parabolic gold moves – at least for gold bugs that is.
I am so glad to be doing less and mostly watching stocks but am truly mesmerized by the surge and the deeper implications. Please continue to add your 2 cents.
Posted on February 28th, 2008 | Category: Gold | Comments Off
So while the nerds and mainstream media argue whether Google has peaked, my gold and oil stocks are riiipppppping and the underlying commodities continue at all-time highs.
We have WINflation going on for those just long the basic materials, oil, agriculture and metals, but LoseFlation in last year’s winners like CROX, Google, Apple and just about any growth stock.
Google has no shipping, packaging, manufacturing BUT ALAS, their clients DO.
It is still not complicated…when the government prints monies, you get inflation. Even though we are off the gold standard, gold rises.
It has not hurt that countries developing wealth also like to accumulate gold and silver. Hence a long running raging bull market.
Fundamentally there is no reason for the rise to stop. Our monetary policies are as weak as ever and mining the metals is as tough and expensive as ever. Increasing demand and a supply that is not growing as fast is the right cocktail for price appreciation.
With metals, I have sold into the spikes before, I will do it again. Fundamentally, I see no reason for Gold to crack but it does have a history of violent corrections.
Let’s face it, gold is a useless metal in North America. Silver less so. Obviously, there is something bigger going on. It is not just speculation, nor is it inflation and a weak US Dollar alone.
In the past, gold stocks were hammered during market corrections. Not recently.
I am not chasing the metal or stocks here. I am actually considering some sales in SLW and PAAS. In fact, I will sell some of both on the open. In the past, major price spikes have been great times to sell.
It’s a major bull market so major price declines would be a good time to add. I will rebuy some leaders on the next major decline. It will come.
Gold at $800, Oil above $93, Tech on fire, China in a boom of histrorically epic proportions and the US Dollar imploding…based on these headlines, it makes sense that Goldman Sachs hit all-time highs today.
Here’s why…they trend follow. They pile on. They stick you with the mistakes. The ‘credit crunch’?…Peeshaw…just a nuisance to Goldman.
A week ago, it looked like Glodman was about to crater. I even shorted it for the weekend as a ‘piss in the wind’ hedge (but quickly covered and blogged both trades). Funny that when I covered at $217, I got emails calling me crazy (you know who you are). Today, a week or so later, it’s back at another all-time high above $243. Phew!
Probably a China implosion is the only thing that really wrecks Goldman right now. Even so, I would buy on that carnage at some point.
If anybody is leaning on these trades in my blog title right now…it’s Goldman. Remember this:
Animals .
Disclosure – Long Oil, Gold, Canadian Dollar, Tech and China through selected stocks and ETF’s, but Not Goldman
Gold and silver busting out everywhere. I own SLW, PAAS, GLD, GOLD and bummed at all the stops that were hit in August. Big fakeout. Looking to add some good names here.
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