My Portfolio…The Bad and The Ugly

It has not been all roses of late.

I have sold my last part of Loopnet (LOOP). After looking fantastic, it has reversed and become a dog. It will take a lot for this stock to come back at this point. Need to keep my capital in strength and not dogs.

GSI Commerce (GSIC) has been trounced of late and I am close to a sell. Below $19 and I am gone.

EMC has no lift in strength and therefore it will likely continue to drift downward. Since that was not an all-time high, i have no perfect idea for a stop. I bought in the $19’s so now am underwater. I will let you know if I boot it.

Synaptics (SYNA) – I have long expected this stock to blow-up and it seems to be underway. No word from the company after a 20 percent drop. Par for the course. it’s why you don’t chase components and why I sold a lot in the $40’s and $50’s on the way up.

Trimble (TRMB) – one of my faorite GPS plays has been destoyed of late. I added more last week at $33. That’s been way wrong. My stop is getting closer in the high 20’s.

Starbucks (SBUX) – I have been trounced since starting to buy at $26 thinking a great brand down 30 plus percent was almost always the right thing to do. Obviously I am waaaaay wrong. Do as I say and not as i do. There is something deeper at work now that the stock is stright down 50 percent. Much has to do with inflation, and their price rises and much has to do with competition. This could be a secular problem and not just a cyclical slowdown. I am being stubborn, but it’s one of 50 positions, and a small one. I am not adding more. I may just sell the next good run if they get one. Here is a good article in the NY Times about Starbucks woes .

Blackboard (BBBB) – High $37’s and I am gone. It feels like that will happen. It as been a Black Hole of late. In fact, I have given up 7 points of gains and now underwater 4 on this trend and Wallstrip stock. Danny has a good look at why he thinks Blackboard is a buy at today’s prices . Me, I have no opinion other than the price sucks and investors can’t get out fast enough. I have a finger on the sell button on any further weakness. I don’t mind rebuying the stock back higher.

Cynosure (CYNO) – another Wallstrip stock, this one I own, that has just been thrashed. It’s close and I am considering a stop right here, but have not yet.

Sorry for all these if you have followed me. Let me know of others that need following up and I will try and get back to you.

Posted on December 17th, 2007 | Category: GPS, Starbucks, WallStrip.com, Wallstrip, Wallstripped | Comments

Google goes GPS

Based on the amount of people writing about it, it must be important.

I wish I understood all this shit at a time like this, but Fred helps clear it up a little with this post .

Looks like Google has recognized this pie as a monster outside search that it must compete aggressively. I assume they are right and Fred likes what they have done so far.

Trimble, Garmin, Nokia and Tom Tom are all positioned well, but maybe Garmin and it’s mainly hardware products is in the new weakest position.

What’s your thinking?

Disclosure – Long Trimble

Posted on November 29th, 2007 | Category: GPS, Garmin, WallStrip.com, Wallstrip, Wallstripped | Comments

Garmin Blinks…In a Good Way

Garmin (GRMN) had me nervous. I had bought a bunch of stock back at $90 and I was not sure how they perceived their own future with the bidding war for Tele-Atlas.

The market was pissed. Garmin has now passed on the bidding war and the stock is up $18. Looks like the trend is alive and that big money could care less about them buying Tele-Atlas.

Obviously management has some work on their hands to ensure that they keep the data licenses, but all is clear for the moment. I will be lightening up a few shares once again. The landscape is extremely volatile in GPS as Mobile juggernaut Nokia enters the fray and the market worries about potentially obsolete Garmin units .

Amazing the way Nokia has picked themselves off the floor and put a scare into the GPS leaders with their purchase of Navteq (NVT) (my best stock pick of the year )

Disclosure- Long Garmin

Posted on November 16th, 2007 | Category: GPS, Garmin, WallStrip.com, Wallstrip, Wallstripped | Comments

Deep market Thoughts…From NEW YORK…Post Facebook and Mucho Earning Reports

I feel smarter when I am here. Alive. Maybe because it’s more likely I will be shot, knifed or hit by a stray cab. In Phoenix, it’s a random wild pack of coyotes or renegade scorpion that could do me in…not likely.

It could be the protein from all the sashimi or carbs from the falaffel, but I am feeling it.

Today’s trading is dominated by Amazon, Merrill, Juniper, Trimble and Broadcom.

Many e-mails last night about the Trimble (TRMB) blow-up (?). Just a blip if you look at closing prices baby :) . GPS is just too white hot.

If you read this blog, other than WFR a chip company for the ’solar bubble’, I could give a rat’s ass for this sector. Take a look at the crap SMH through this rally. DAWWWWG. I have wasted too much time watching it. broadcom delivered a monster death blow on the heels of Sandisks blow-up. Components are too tough to trade and own for long periods of time.

Financials…please. Other than Amex or Blackstone and Goldman on severe weakness, you can have them.

Amazon is a little different. I am not scared and added a few shares today in the mid 80’s as I outlined I would do yesterday after the close. Expensive for sure, but tech will go higher and this dip is buyable for me.

Juniper is a blow-up and I am still profitable and well above my entry.

I am interested/excited to see Interactive Broker’s numbers tomorrow. i think they will be giant, but who knows. CME (I am long) powered up to $650. Amazing.

I am positive/negative about the Facebook/Microsoft deal. I like that it keeps Google honest for now. I don’t trust Microsoft to get anything right and Zuckerberg is so freaking boring and way too drony for a 23 year old. Microsoft is now close to 5 year highs and if the stock reacts positively for a few weeks, I will be more convinced that this may be good. Off the cuff, my bullishness for Facebook has now ended. I like niche Social networks that add value to my life. That seems to be the trade now that everybody is all in on the social graph. The trend on the other hand could not be accelerating any faster than right NOW.

Hope you all had a great day.

Posted on October 24th, 2007 | Category: Amazon, Facebook, GPS, General, WallStrip.com, Wallstrip, Wallstripped | Comments

Nokia to BUY Navteq?

I would prefer Google to do it, but since I own it, maybe Nokia is just scared and willing to pay way more. Homerun….I have done everything I can to get you in this trend .

The Wall Street Journal has the story .

Disclosure – Long Navteq (NVT)

Posted on October 1st, 2007 | Category: GPS, WallStrip.com, Wallstrip, Wallstripped | Comments Off

Navteq (NVT) Taking Some Profits…

Broken record, but booking some NVT profits with the stock at $79. This stock was in the 20’s this year so…YIPPPEE.

Looking at four new breakouts today….developing

Posted on September 26th, 2007 | Category: All-Time Highs, GPS, WallStrip.com, Wallstrip, Wallstripped | Comments

Easing on Garmin (GRMN)…GPS has been Smokin’

What a run. Sold some at the open at $118. What a freaking homerun stock. Check it out . I will happily take some more profits in a double from May.

NVT also now above $70 so it looks like Trimble (TRMB) could have a huge run left in it.

Disclosure – Long GRMN, NVT, TRMB

Posted on September 25th, 2007 | Category: GPS, Garmin, WallStrip.com, Wallstrip, Wallstripped | Comments

Garmin and Navteq on Wallstrip

These two beauties are no strangers to my blog. I love both companies, but you CAN’T and SHOULD NOT chase. Today on Wallstrip, we take a look at Garmin and Navteq.

A few things I noticed from today’s show:

1. Nobody really owns GPS units and few people have heard of Garmin or Navteq.

2. Everyone will…soon

3. Lindsay looks great in Lycra

The fact that Garmin has grown to a $20 billion market cap will mean that the big boys will come to share at the trough. Garmin’s stakes have risen. A slip up will be costly. Navteq is in a better situation as many companies must be eying them.

It’s product’s like the Garmin Forerunner that Lindsay is wearing in the show, that give Garmin the early lead. Bijan had a great review of the product last month .

The end game will be decided by FASHION over technology so look for Apple to be a major player in the space before all is said and done.

Here are the Google Finance start pages for both Garmin and Navteq .

Finally, Brian takes a look at the technical picture:

Posted on August 5th, 2007 | Category: GPS, Garmin, Trends, WallStrip.com, Wallstrip, Wallstripped | Comments

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