All we know one more trading day later is people are convinced this deal will happen, happen higher or some yutz or group of yutz’s (yutzem?) pays more for this new media conglomerate. I mean Yahoo is almost fully priced at Microsoft deal offer now. The freaking arbs are hard up for deals to….well…ARB!
All we know is that Google could probably care less. They do care enough to dispatch a few hundred Google Lawyers (still awful people even though they practice law for GOOGLE) to just mess around and run up bills about this and that.
All we know is Microsoft lost another percentage point today. The ‘ol closet indexers are pissed off.
Al we know is that Yahoo would be NUCKING FUTS to pass on this deal.
All we know is Google is getting sold on any news it releases. That’s good for me and my kids – my kids buying today by me.
It’s not that complicated accept for the arbs and traders pressing their luck on Yahoo at $29.
All I DO Know for sure is the risk in the market went up further on this merger news which created uncertainties we don’t need. Valuations will get held back at least until a final deal is struck in M.Y.M.A.
Cognos is being taken out by IBM at a nice premium. It looks like somebody leaked this last month. I blogged it and I should have chased it , when I speculated on the software takeover targets.
When the market turns again, look for the software leaders to continue their runs. The sector is in play.
A weak dollar just makes the $1 billion Bear Stearns Investment from Citic a steal. The sound bites from James Cayne (last bank to the party) are a joke (stick with Goldman as I have always said). The big money to be made off this news is to sell your business now while the getting is good. Foreigners have a history of paying top dollar for US assets only to give them back a few years later.
That all said, this time may be different (China is not Russia, Japan, or France).
First, they are buying into Bear Stearns down 30 plus percent from all-time highs. They are buying it with US dollars that cost them a nickel a piece.
Basically they got this piece of Bear Stearns for squat.
Interesting times indeed and a great time to be a bull. Tons’s of bears, no IPO’s, a weak dollar giving us a bazillion mergers, and US companies with foreign exposure are getting a huge competitive advantage, whether they deserve it or not.
I named some posssible winners and bought them – Citrix, INFA and ADBE which all did great this week. BUT, the comments had the big winners and that’s way cool. My friend Ross nailed Cognos (COGN), up 15 percent this week, but the big winner was BEAS.
Here’s classic FLY introducng his choices into my comments and my reply:
FLY – Fuck you guys – Icahn says buy BEAS. You buy BEAS, else get clipped outside your favorite bakery.
Howard - Hows motorola coming for that old fart – He should be focused on Pfizer/viagra for the sake of his old shriveling
weenie.
I was wrong by just trying to be a smartass, but FLY was serious and had a good idea of a company already in play. I should have looked a little further as BEAS got a huge bid this week from Oracle and even had the ‘balls’ to turn it down.
Software will stay hot as per my post and kudos to The Fly on both Beas and CRM (Wallstripped ).
Now we know why tech is strong and won’t dip. Look for software stocks to start making biiiiig gains. Have you been watching VMWare since it’s IPO. I have and we have and it’s on freaking fire . Tonight SAP put a whole bunch of stocks in play. I am not long software other than Adobe and Verisign. I will be adding a few names tomorrow.
I am scouring tonight. Maybe Citrix (CTXS) , at all-time highs (back out bubble).
If you are going to speculate, DO IT IN A BULL MARKET. This is when silly shit happens and you should not apologize or feel guilty. Just don’t be wreckless…you are not smart.
I love Sunday nights in bull markets. Go to work. Talk to me with some other names….
GAME ON!
Disclosure – Long Verisign and Adobe, BUYING INFA and CTXS
It was too good to last I know…I mean mergers are always penciled out by the noodlenecks to be accretive, fantastic for all, 1+1=3. But seriously, the bigger they get, the more ego and the less care is really taken. Things needed to stiop just to get the bankers and CEO’s to stop and at least run their businesses for 5 minutes without thinking about all the fees they would get.
It sure was fun waking up to the juiced mergers everyday. Sure the odd/big merger is still happening, but that valve just shut right down 3 weeks ago.
With the weak US Dollar that our current administration has NO INTERST in stopping, I do not expect that to last and those lovely 6am PST wakeup to 25 percent gaps should be back soon.
Posted on September 5th, 2007 | Category: Mergers | Comments
Gives me room for the new purchases I was writing about this weekend.
When things get this silly on Wall Street you have to hold your nose, close your eyes and stay long (strong stocks). It will end and end badly, but who knows when. This famous ‘hoodoo’ has been calling for the end for at least 20 years . Great cocktail party invite for sure. Better your house than mine though . I do swear that Bill writes the same articles every week, just seeds them at different sites. All the bears do.
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