Gaming has been ALL about boys…until NOW. The Wii has changed things and not in some ‘itsy bitsy’ couple year trend kind of thing, but in a big ball busting trend kind of way. I have seen the future and the future is…Rachel fighting Max for the Wii.
With Nintendo (NTDOY), the boys and ‘man boys’ markets are a LOCK. If you buy the stock today you need another catalyst…I mean the cats out of the bag no? They don’t do their own retail like Apple, you can’t play the games on an iPhone and you don’t play them on Macs. That said, I think they have a giant catalyst in girls, women and the family unit. If you are skeptical and refuse to buy a Wii, go to a friends house with your family and play Mario Kart.
If you don’t already own Nintendo (NTDOY) , you can’t blame me. I have been bullish and long since the 30’s, we Wallstripped it and now a year has past. Here’s a good post of mine from last May and not much has changed in the story except the price of the stock. In gigantic stocks, waiting for 10-15 percent pullbacks can be expensive. I was not early when I got in, but I never am. Obviously the question today after it has doubled yet again…is now too late?
I could bore you with metrics but that could not help me justify anything…thank goodness though because I would be broke if I only owned cheap, low P/E stocks. I bought some more this week for me and the kids despite it being off it’s all-time high and despite the fact that I have actually sold some at lower levels for my fund.
The chart and stock trajectory is breathtaking and a spitting image of Apple . I think both companies have a lot in common in what lies ahead (girls, women and families – Apple having the big edge with their fantastic retail), but this post is not about Apple.
Girls will play the Wii. Color me not totally convinced on Wii fit, but it can’t hurt and will continue to evolve and expand.
Our biggest KnightsBridge investment to date, and our first, was last year GreenScreen Games . One of their studios – SuperVillain (Tony Hawk) – has the major game launching and it’s for a market that is not their bread and butter – anyone but a boy.
Check out the next big type of gaming hit (click on image to enlarge):
The ‘girls, women and family unit’ is not factored into today’s prices because ANALysts have nothing to really compare it too. That’s good..
Gamestop (GME), despite my hate, has an almost monopoly and everybody is and will gun for that market – EXPANDING THE PIE. Best Buy (BBY), also despite my hate, can’t sell laptops, PC’s, washing machines, flat screens or music for profit anymore. But gaming…
PlayNTrade is one of the fastest growing franchises and I love this local Phoenix franchise idea of Gamestop on wheels called ‘The Game Truck ‘.
I am of the feeling that Nintendo could go wild still. I mean it gets Nasdaq ‘Pink Sheet’ love only and although the brand is everywhere, NOBODY owns the stock.
Do you? Better yet…does your cab driver?
PS – I still stand by my statement back in my March 2007 post…’If marijuana is legalized, all the gaming stocks double again overnight!’
PSS – I did a whole bullish trend scenario for gaming and did not mention ‘Guitar Hero’ or ‘Rock band’ even ONCE (until now ).
PSSS – When I think of ‘Breathtaking’, I think of Seinfeld (also the ‘Shrinkage’ episode):
PSSSS- Going offblog until Wednesday as the Lindzon’s hit the road for the summer. Don’t do anything crazy.
Disclosure – Long Nintendo, Electronic Arts and GreenScreen Games.
I have not been shy about gaming and gaming stocks. Long-term this trend is and has been money. We have covered Sony , Electronic Arts , Nintendo , Gamestop and Microsoft (it can’t be Vista) on Wallstrip.
My favorite in the space has been Nintendo. I was buying and recommending it way back in March when it had already risen 300 percent rather quickly. It has still more than doubled since than. The phenomenon will only grow.
I have owned this stock before but have mainly stuck with Electronic Arts, Sony and Nintendo as my proxy for the game market (the stock should rocket higher tomorrow so I am bummed of course). With respect to Sony and have taken much ridicule for that at a recent dinner in San Francisco (but it is on fire lately too).
Building games is a gigantic market but is becoming more like the movie business and that’s why this move by Vivendi is underway. Activision is ruling the game world these days with Guitar Hero and today’s Wallstrip pretty much sums up why.
Easier than the real guitar and a good reason to get smashed and live out your rock star fantasy. Guitar hero is UNSTOPPABLE as will all of it’s offspring.
Brian takes a look at the activision pricing picture to wrap it up:
In the end, don’t think too hard. This trend is something that all investment portfolios should have exposure too. Take your pick.
Disclosure – Long Nintendo, Electronic Arts and Sony
I am long so happy if we rock higher but lot’s of damage has been done, my stocks included.
It’s all Nintendo and Apple this christmas. Synaptics looks to be the strongest of the component companies through this mess.
In the financials, if you are going to own one name, Mastercard may offer the best upside to a strong holiday season. We have covered it on Wallstrip and it has been on fire since. PayPass and being an intermediary is quite a good business. Legal bookies.
We love the Wii in our home as NTDOY has paid for our games and console with a little room to spare . My only mistake has been selling half at $60. What a freaking run.
The real good news is that this run has come from the 30’s, when i bought it , without the legalization of marijuana. We still have all that upside.
I don’t necessarily agree with the other comeback brands – Citibank, Burberry and Audi, but do like reading through the list of top brands to remind myself of the great companies, especially when the market is so jittery.
If you like to fade cover stories, now is your time . I am selling half my position today on the rise and occassion.
Disclosure – Long ERTS , Nintendo (NTDOY ) and Sony .
I am reading today that RIMM passed Motorola in market cap (if you live in Toronto, all you read about is RIMM). That makes sense to me. I don’t think Motorola is relevant in my tech life these days. RIMM is integral to my life. I can’t function as a businessman without my Blackberry.
You can’t value that properly. Too new. That’s why the shorts have been bludgeoned.
Now, Carl Icahn is a smart dude. He believes that Motorola is undervalued. He is generally right. He is likely right here. He is patient and maybe is not bothered that RIMM is screaming higher. He should be.
He would have made WAY WAY more money looking at the issue from a Blackberry user’s point of view. Instead, he is down in his Motorola position and watching Blackberry climb 100 percent since his move on Motorola.
Nintendo recently blew past Sony in market cap. Now that shocked even me. I own both. I love the Wii and so do my kids, but I am not as convinced on that one. I think both keep rising for now.
Disclosure – Long Sony and Ninetndo
When the mood of the market turns (it will), the real valuation gap between the two companies will get more realistic. If you can guess win (you can’t and should not be guessing), you win.
I used to attend E3 until about 2003. Always a fun event. Not this year, but expect lot’s of news…mostly price wars on consoles and new game launches. Here goes Sony firing the first missile .
This year, I own most of the relevant stocks, Electronic Arts, Nintendo and Sony. Gamestop is the retail beneficiary of the boom.
The stock is on fire for sure. I can hear the typical excuses already…
The Wallstrip show is late. The P/E is too high. It’s a Pink Sheet stock and an ADR for crissake! The graphics suck. It’s a fad.
Not bad, but there is something else at play here. That something is ‘Stock Culture meets Pop Culture’ . For instance, here are all the Wii blogs . That’s passion.
Flickr photo’s…trust me they are insane.
YouTube – go search for yourself. OK – here you go .
This machine, stock and company are gaining momentum into our psyche’s. We finally got Max a machine for his eighth birthday and Wallstrip stole it on our trip to new York. Lindsay hit max in the head, nerds were athletes, and we had a Wallstrip party that turned into a Wii tennis tournament….on a Friday night in New York!
Maybe – OR – maybe we are seeing another iPod phenomenon where you would have been happy to buy into the Apple craze in 2005, a couple years after the iPod craze was beginning.
Time will tell, but I am a believer in the Wii craze. So is my really old friend and uber good financial blogger Jim Kingsland .
For a good look at the technical picture, here is Brian’s take:
The market is really hot and rewarding big growth ideas. If the market turns, high growth stocks fall fast. Nintendo is a Pink Sheet ADR and as Brian points out, it is thinly traded and subject to higher volatility (wilder price movements). Don’t forget that.
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