The weak dollar is not the longest running trend that has stayed intact since I started this blog. It has been extremely good to me, but the world is downright pissed about it.

These posts from early 2006 are still very relevant even after massive gains in gold and foreign currencies. If you had used Canadian dollars to buy global stocks in March 2006 when I was doing it and recommending it , you have fared quite nicely as a US citizen.

When bankers continue to print stock, be it Telecom, or Homebuilders, you get a crash. Well, the governement has been inflating forever here in the US for a myriad of reasons. The biggest reason is that we are crybabies in the US and can’t stomach another Crash. With the Euro’s close near $1.50, I am very concerned about a panic. I can’t get myself to own a currency of that god forsaken land mass. I will stick with Canadian dollars and hard assets. Working fine thank-you.

Until we get serious policy change here in the US, the trend could just accelerate. Or not :) .

That does not mean the trend won’t continue or even accelerate before it ends.

In the meantime, calling Tops and Bottoms is just not that important. A good article here from Michael Kahn on the US dollar trend is worth a read .

The way the dollar acts seems climactic in nature and that is why I am fearing a market event. Too many recent breakouts in my portfolio have reversed fast and turned negative – SINA, NDAQ, CSTR, BBBB and many all-time highs I never added. I don’t have a complicated system of stock selection or money management, but the vicious price action speaks loudly. It has my full attention.

I am building a list in case this week gets messy. You should too.

It’s a little chilly in New York, but it’s a beautiful day to be walking the streets. Too bad I have been couped up in meetings.

I bought some Garmin under $90. It looks like Bam Bam (Tom Tom really) has increased their bid for Tele-Atlas. If Garmin keeps upping the number, the stock will fall further, but I have sold stock so much higher and love GPS stocks, so will take a small piece back in.

I also bought some CYNO (Cynosure). It’s down 20 percent from all-tuime highs but growing like a weed. I am long tattoo removal and other bullshit laser surgeries.

Other than that, the whoopass on financials continue. BX and Goldman are far from my kill zones and American Express is appealing to me 20 percent lower so I watch. Other than that, it’s skeleton in the closet time. Today, Capital One is the punished. I hate those weasels so I could care less. Mastercard is a monster so if you are playing the short game, they could play catch-up. Not for me.

The market can’t move strongly higher without them. Period. You should just do less.

I am sure the Apple store is packed though :) .

Disclosure – Long AAPL, Gold stocks, GRMN< CYNO and Canada

When it comes to US dollars, the world has truly shrunk and because the US dollar has stunk, anything is possible.

Heading home this afternoon. Looking forward to some good Phoenix weather and the kids. Going to tee it up this week for sure.

It is fun to be right and catch a trend. This one has seemed too easy, but if you print something as fast as we have printed US Dollars, it is not possible that it will hold value over time.

That time is now. I talk enough to Canadian businesses owners and concerns are at Code Red.

If you are a Canadian or European not in super luxury exporting, you are fu@#cked this year. Even if you hedged the last 20 percent fast US dollar move, as a Canadian or European exporter what do you do this year when you can’t compete? If I am a US importer collecting bids in US Dollars, I could give a crap about your currency issues. I want the best price. You are going to have thousands of businesses missing their numbers this year. Now don’t get me wrong. There are thousands of businesses that will surface over time from this currency swing and places like Calgary (that’s Canada :) ) have been booming as oil booms, but major shocks and surprises come from huge moves like this as businesses do not adjust fast enough and the stock market hates surprises.

We had the first market warning shot this August with our credit crunch. The market has behaved awesome shrugging it off and chugging to more all-time highs. BUT, tops take time to form, lot’s of time. I am not close to price stops on my stocks so I may be facing a large drawdown if we get a trickle down.

Trade Wars scare me the most. I can’t imagine this scares George Jr. based on his rhetoric of war and enemies.

Time will tell.

Other things remain perfectly in balance. The Phoenix Suns are running and gunning, the Arizona Cardinals are back losing and I am headed back outside now as it’s 80 degrees and perfect in Phoenix. That’s now 82 in Canadian degrees :) . I am worried about this heat exchange come next summer.

PS – Don’t say you were not warned:

Billions, likely trillions of profits are being made and lost.

You can slap all the fundamental and technical analysis on this trend that you want, but it’s quite simple. If you print ANYTHING non-stop, it loses value. Dollars, Lithographs, Rocky movies…

Lindsay learned today that you can’t give US Dollars away, even on New York subways . That shocked even me.

Back just in July I tried to exchange a Canadian $20 to get uptown to a meeting. No dice. Today that dollar is worth 2 cents more than a US Dollar, which is a gigantic 7 percent move in the exchange. Here is the Canadian/US dollar chart and ETF (symbol-FXC).

Here’s the drama as it unfolded:

That raspberry salesman made out like a seasoned currency trader :) .

Disclosure – Long Canada :) .

If someone tells you what this means – THEY ARE LYING. That’s what no man’s land is.

The noise alays gets louder at inflection points. That’s when you should do less.

One thing I would be sure of, the banks, like Cramer, THINK they know what no man’s land promises. That’s why I would turn off the TV and avoid the financials. Cramer screamed fire on CNBC last Friday on the homebuilders and the FED. Since that fit, the Dow has rallied 600 points and the homebuilders have rallied 30-40 percent in a few days.

Just keep doing less until the market shows it’s real strength again.

Too many unrecovered stocks in my portfolio after this big rally to make me think this rally is real.

Also took my loss in the stupid homebuilder trade. Much smaller than it could have been if I had sold into Cramer’s we are going to zero panic.

I have been predicting a move well past par since I started this blog and we are getting very close to par these days. The US dollar is weak and the current administration seem fine with it. For now, global stocks markets are cool with it as well.

I have played the trade with gold and oil stocks and keeping money in Canada. Readers have suggested FXC, an ETF that mimics the currencies. All have been profitable. All should continue their trend.