Most stocks trends end because of SCENARIO TWO I outline in this May 2007 post on Crocs (CROX). It’s one of my favorites.

When you buy common stocks, based on your, mine or Cramer’s research or missives, we won’t be there to hold your hand when the stock immediately turns south. It’s why I try and temper my excitement for stocks on this blog, especially in horrid markets like this. I love stocks and can’t help talking about them, but keep more and more of it to Twitter.

The title of this blog is not buy, buy more and never sell. ‘Getting Off’ is the most important part of any investing strategy.

In one of our first Wallstrip’s (November, 2006), I was cycnical of Whole Foods (WFMI) (than in the 40’s). I tried to explain early on in our show about Hot stocks in Hot trends, that Trends End! I thought Whole Foods, despite being a great company, was dealing with a broken stock.

Who cared what the reasons were. The average investor will never know the reasons until it’s too late and the Company is ‘LOOKING FOR A FRESH IMAGE ‘ . OY! It’s just not that complicated if you heed to PRICE!

My friend Fred wrote something the other day:

Web services are like cars or soft drinks. There’s room for many of them to coexist peacefully. You might like to drive a Honda, drink Coke, and use AIM to talk to your friends. I might like to drive a Chevy, drink Pepsi, and use Twitter to talk to my friends.

Yes, like cars and soft drinks, web services compete with each other for customers/users. But there are almost a billion internet users globally these days. And you can build a very nice business serving millions or ideally tens of millions of users.

So I’d like to suggest that we stop focusing on who is going to kill whom and instead think about market share, business model, sustainability, and profitability which are the measures that people in most businesses tend to focus on.

He’s right, especially when you are looking to back start-ups. Unfortunately, for the average common stock investor, this thinking will get you broke and fast. Again, there are just too many hands in the pot ahead of you…the lowly ‘common’ shareholder.

So wise up, take some responsibility and learn to SELL. It’s not a game and no matter how small you think your portfolio is, it’s not and should never be looked at as your gambling money. You will have more fun and have way more ‘Happy Endings’ gambling in Vegas!

PS – I was in a Circle K buying some ‘Tiger’ Gatorade and escaping the 115 degree heat for a minute and I saw a spinning rack full of CROCS (CROX) knock-offs for $4.99. This was an in your face, ‘f%#ck you your are dead and won’t bother even suing me’, knockoff. I pulled up a chart remembering the last time I looked it was $10 a few months back (down from $90). Let’s just call $10…’the glory days’ .

Julie takes a look at this impressive niche insurance business Solera Holdings (SLH) on today’s Wallstrip :

I continue to be very cautious about new selections for the show and my portfolio and do not own this stock. There is strength out there and when the market as a whole gets stronger and shows more leadership sectors and all-time highs, being in tune with the leaders can help you own the best stocks.

She feels we need a cocktail that she can call her own and sip while the market does it thing and she does her research.

I mean Dave Letterman has his mug of coffee or water or something…

I have created my own for her called ‘CNBC Poison’ (it’s more symbolic so Julie can add something to make the taste bearable):

Vermouth (yuck)
Wine cooler (lame)
Two Ambien (should keep Cramer quiet during market hours)
Two Silver Dollars (one facing up and one down – to represent how guests and hosts pick stocks on the show)
Paper bag (That’s how Faber hides his drinking all day)

Please submit yours here or at the site!

The first two ideas that I posted on watching, ideas that I went long – Qualcomm and Biotech ETF’s, have now both exploded.

I had no special insight or inside information. I don’t manage a billion dollars and don’t comb SEC filings. I definitely don’t call CEO’s or look at investment bank research.

I look at symbols and price and I do it every day (have done so diligently for 15 plus years – 10 plus as a hedge fund manager). Watching the price action and looking for strength attracted me to the ideas.

With Qualcomm today settling with Nokia and surging to post bubble highs and Genentech getting a bid, one thing is reinforced:

MONEY LEAVES FOOTPRINTS!

For the average investor, following price can lead to big gains.

Just as important for the average investor:

Following news can lead to big losses.

Don’t make this stuff too complicated. Leave that to putz’s like me.

The other good news is internet growth. Fred Wilson has posted some of the global internet growth numbers in this post .

Fred’s takeaway…

When we went out to raise a second fund at the start of this year, we told our investors that the Internet was getting more global, more mobile, more social, more intelligent, and more playful.

In his next post he went on…

Of course, that’s already happening because North America is only 20% of the global internet audience but it attracts well over 80% of the investment capital. And that will change. It already is.

The world is truly shrinking and the opportunities are now everywhere. I was in Bracebridge, Muskoka for the last week. It’s a very quiet summer town that I spent my first 20 plus summers eating candy bars and pizza slices. It now has some of the best sushi I have ever had. You can get what you want when you want in the world we now live in.

The BAD is something we are now paying for and sit in which is the excesses of credit and spending and global growth.

Todd Harrison has a good post explaining the fallout .

My takeaway is that we still need patience as the process heads toward the consumer.
This morning Costco missed it’s numbers and I expect many more retailers to feel the pinch brought on not only by higher costs, but by a more nervous, tight consumer.

I like this quote from Todd Harrison:

Capital preservation, debt reduction and financial literacy remain our staunchest allies as we wade through one of the most interesting economic junctures in American history.

Also – keep these tidbits in the back of your mind while you decide if we are closer to a bottom or a top…

1. Bernanke made all these warnings just last week!

2. HEMLINES …don’t hate the messenger of this great forecasting tool.

3. Apple and Google are buried under piles of stock overhead and we need new leaders.

4. Canada is on an unstoppable all-time high (Hat Tip – Soren).

As you all know, I am very long Canada and have spent the summer getting a better feel for the landscape. I think that Toronto is the most undervalued (real estate) of the big, global cities and that combined with Fred’s thoughts above and having RIMM so close to town and the Canadian Dollar so close to par, that the Canadian web scene will thrive for the forseeable future.

One industry that Canada is about to lose other than all things auto related, is the hollywood north label. The weak Canadian dollar WAS a boon for US Hollywood as they saved 30-40 percent coming to shoot and produce up in Canada. Poof!

It’s never perfect out there.

If you want to get up to speed quickly on all things Canada and the web, read Jevon’s blog ‘StartupNorth.CA ‘. He also has created an index for the companies and the fundings.

Ok. Go to work. I am picking up my kids from camp and have to believe days like this are the biggest days of the year for McDonaldd’s.

Nobody owned it until it hit $170 on the way to $200. By than it was a foregone conclusion to the media. Apple could do no wrong. Every mutual fund had to have it on their sheets. Same mechanisms at work on Wall Street all the time. Just change the stock symbol…

There is nothing wrong with Apple, THE COMPANY. NOTHING! In fact, the quarter was just wicked good for MAC shipments .

There is something wrong with the stock and the people that own it.

Now you have something called OVERHEAD SUPPLY which is ‘beacoup’ shareholders underwater with their buys.

Throw in a miserable stock market mood, a ’sick’? Steve Jobs and you got yourself a reason to SELL.

Just wait until the options backdating scandal rears it’s ugly head again. Actually, don’t wait. Unless this stock clears all-time highs, there is really no reason for the average investor to own shares. Too messy, despite it’s greatness.

I mentioned BBH (an ETF) and Eric mentioned IBB (an ETF with wider representation) in the comments. I bought both and Twittered the buys last week.

Today, we get a major reason for their strength. Genentech (DNA), the largest component of the index is getting a bid from Roche for the stock they don’t own .

Great – now the French are the leaders in cancer research. That does not make me feel all warm and fuzzy, but the foreign buyouts will continue as our dollar weakens.

If the credit markets improve, expect hundreds of gigantour deals.

So Julie does :

Julie should be running monetary policy.

If you can’t get excited about Greg Norman in the lead at the British Open, you are his ex-wife.

If you can’t get excited about leaving your dead end banking or engineering job, than you may surf the web, but you don’t get the web.

Take a good read of Y Combinator’s (Paul Graham’s) list of ideas that he would like to fund and go to work . If his line is busy, call your mom for the 10k it will cost for a few apple laptops and 2 months of redbull.

Get creative and chase your passion.

Quit whining about the stock market and the politics.

I don’t want to own banks (except mine), though I traded Visa, American Express and Goldman Sachs the last week. With Wells Fargo’s earnings being treated with a ‘Glass is Half Full’ attitude, I have a basis for watching the financial sector through one stock and that’s Wells Fargo (WFC). As long as I see it above the gap up price of $24/share, I will treat the market as calmed down and add to my stronger positions and even consider some new breakouts. People make this stuff harder than it is because they want to catch bottoms and tops.

A few positions I have added to the last week include:

ELP
CCC
EURX
CRM
PPO
NTDOY
WCN

Some into recent weakness (NTDOY, CCC and CRM), some into their all-time high strength.

Still extremely light at about 30 percent invested. No rush to get invested. I will let the market dictate that.