Don’t worry – Google paper will be crap as well – just not yet.

It is the same f@#cking game played over and over by Wall Street. IT IS CALLED DISTRIBUTION. It takes time. When Wall Street gets hold of a beauty like Google, they take their sweet time distributing it one share at a time to every last believer in the story. See – Intel, Microsoft, Dell and Yahoo. Could take 15 years or three. The Google stock distribution game has just begun.

It is the normal complaints I am hearing again – stock is too high, market cap is ridiculous, shares are too expensive, too many acquisitions, I should have bought at $162, should have bought on the pullback to $320…

In the meantime, everyone owns Yahoo and Microsoft – stock is too low, market cap and PE are reasonable, it’s cheap relative to Google, I can always double down cheaper because it’s already so low. OY!

That poor sap at the end of the Wallstrip Google video thinks he is actually smart for owning Yahoo as a proxy for Google. He is waiting for Yahoo to “follow Google’s tracks” . That happiness is called “COMFORT”. It just feels right because the idiot next to you owns it.

Yahoo and Microsoft are in a hole and digging themselves deeper. James Cramer is doing a daily show about who Yahoo should buy. That is absurd. There are no public companies they should have bought save YouTube. But Cramer is crazy “like a fox” and a rating’s hound so it makes for good CNBC fodder.

YouTube was a smart and cheap acquisition. The YouTube haters were wrong. I wrote a lot on the subject predicting a buyout – most recently here . They paid $1.6 billion in stock but have gained $20 odd billion in market cap since the announcement. At the very least it was smart to keep it out of enemy hands.

Whether they integrate properly remains to be seen, but the market has spoken for now. Google just announced great numbers and the stock would have to drop 15 percent to get to pre YouTube market valuation.

The “man on the street” says it’s a joke. “The man” will have changed his/her mind before the Google phenomenon is over.

All that said, I do not own the stock. If it takes out it’s all-time high – it is close – I would own it based on my strategy. I have owned it before and been stopped out of the trend in the summer swoon.

People call those that have bought and held this stock – absurd. I guess it’s normal that Cramer has had about 100 buy and sells of GOOGLE in the past 12 months. His latest is a buy – I think – with a $560 price target.

I think price targets are a sham and are the one true remaining sign of absurdity from the last bubble. They should be banned, BUT that’s another show! We are working on the footage.

PS – Congrats to my friend and contributor Briann Shannon for his positive mention in Barron’s.

PSS – My condolences to Steve Ballmer for looking like a complete putz. What a shitty job to have (other than the pay and perks :) )

A good idea to some, is a horrible idea to others.

The blogosphere – much like “crowds” is a dangerous place to trust consensus.

“Don’t Trust Whitey” – (Completely irrelevant – just a favorite line of mine from “The Jerk”, which I discussed all weekend with Chartreuse )

When all is said and done, your best chance at success comes from the management team and leadership.

Give me an average idea with a great management team and venture backers over a great idea with average management and “C” list VC’s.

This weekend, Pay Per Post announced that they raised $3 million . The blogosphere HATED this company when it was birthed just 3 months ago. That was a good sign. Management did not quit, they executed on their plan.

When you launch an idea and the blogoshere picks up on it these days, you better be prepared for a million opinions. The “wisdom of crowds” has never been louder than 2006 and this is just the beginning.

Unless you are willing to stay in “double secret stealth alpha” forever, you better be prepared for the noise, trust your instincts and focus on the plan.

So far, Pay Per Post is doing so. Now they have some more help and money to better execute their plan.

The NOISE just went up a level. I just sent the CEO some ear muffs :) .

I don’t believe in “Best Of” lists, but Business Week flexes it’s muscle by publishing a few more about the
Web and Bloggers . Lists work great – for the Publishers of them :) . Followed only by contests as a way to attracts readers and comments. Proof – the two most commented posts I have published are my Top 10 Reasons you are addicted to the stock market and my “Paired Trades Contest” (which I continue to lead – thanks to Apple).

I have very small ideas , especially as it relates to the stock market , but my friend Roger has “big” ones :) .

Nevertheless, Roger, Business Week and all the “hootie tootie” best of in Business Week are not thowing a Bender in New York this Friday. All “hootie tooties” are welcome.

The story is still so early. I love reading about all the Apple haters and disbelievers. They continue to miss the point.

Inkling Markets is a cool idea. I will be keeping my eye on this. Ian delaney has a good post on the whole subject .

Jeff Matthews has the definitive on the Amaranth . For those too lazy – a sweet tidbit:

Before you scoff at this, try to guess who told the Wall Street Journal the following less than three weeks ago:

When sharks smell blood…

Some more interesting all-time highs – I am adding a little Fiserv and Nike on Monday

Brace for $80 oil? How about $50? . I started nibbling.

Chris says Instant Bull is a great tool for market watchers . I have been tooling around myself after the recommendation and although not pretty, it’s pretty damn good.

Happy new Year and a healthy one for those Jewishhly inclined :) .

Crowds are interesting to watch from afar. Like watching crazies “Run with the Bulls” in Pamplona.

Do these people (this crowd) look so smart!

Crowds can be fun to be a part of at concerts and football games, but I would’nt entrust their opinion on Events with MY MONEY!. Does Bono rely on his screaming fans for his Evolution investments?

The ONLY crowd to watch in the stock market is the overall tape. I am extremely skeptical of any stock site that is building a model based on crowd behavior. I have ranted on this before. LESS is MORE.

The crowd angle is in full Web steam ahead mode in any case.

Over at TechCrunch they are reporting that Pickspal has raised $6 million. Here is their awful analysis:

Recently, however, the PicksPal team noticed that a very small percentage of users tend to be correct in their picks significantly more often that they should be statistically. When they grouped these special users they found them to be a powerful predictive force.

Tom and his team figured out pretty quickly that there was a potentially massive business here. And next Tuesday they are going to start tapping into that business when they launch what they call “Genius Picks”. For $10, users can get access to the collective wisdom of the 30 best PicksPal players over the previous five weeks in a given sport, and get five predictions on upcoming games.

The only thing I can predict is that my kids will have accounts and that they will be taking shots at picking winners. If they get hot – you too can benefit from their sport’s genius. Can’t wait. Already signed them up :) .

Big heaping OY! Tech Crunch’s site seems weaker and weaker by the day. Instead of deep analysis on less stories, they are just posting a lot of crap and really weak thinking. They have become part of a loud, noisy crowd of venture capitalists, engineers, and web entrepreneurs and this crowd is now confusing things.

What is continually obvious despite the Web naysayers is – There is a LOT of money floating around in the internet venture space.

I have thought that this space will only get hotter as even a tiny amount of money that flows out of real estate by the big guns who have made BILLIONS in this cycle, gets thrown at the Web.

It is and it will get hotter. Deals that should be getting $1 million are getting $5 million plus.

I am reading that Eventful has just raised $7.5 million and has now raised $9.5 (ish) in venture capital. No plans at revenue generation in the near future. Yahoo owns a competitor in the space.

I have met with the good people of Eventful. I like them. They move quick.

But – $7.5 million is lot’s of money for a service like this to have in the bank. Maybe they are looking at some acquisitions that will help them build out their differentiating service for the moment. This is the service:

Besides having created a clearinghouse for events information, one aspect of the service that’s catching on among users is the tool that allows people to demand events. For example, say there’s a pocket of fans for a band in a given city. Users could demand the band visit, and, should the band be willing, the band could make adjustments in its tour schedule.

Interesting for sure, but that feature seems a long way from bankable at the moment. I am sure they know something that I don’t.