Deep Market Thoughts…Don't be a Hog in Commodities and Wallstrip Talks Oil 'On The Streets'

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  • on May 6th, 2008

You would think, if you were thinking, that the market should not be going up right now. Julie hit the streets for Wallstrip last week with Manhattan oil up above $4/per gallon .

I am trying not to think too much because I would be short. Instead, I am long strength and short Dell and trading just a little.

I am still long gold and oil, but not bullish. This bloomberg article on Sprott Asset Management – out of Canada – is a pretty clear sign of froth and greed.

Eric Sprott’s bets on gold and oil pushed his Toronto-based flagship fund to an average return of 27 percent a year since 1998, more than three times the gain of Canada’s Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index. The fund bought mining stock Thompson Creek Metals Co. in 2006 prior to a rally that lifted it tenfold.

Sprott is cashing out eight years after forming the company that made him one of Canada’s best-known speculators. The C$230 million ($226 million) IPO is reminiscent of last June’s share sale of U.S. private-equity firm Blackstone Group LP, said Stephen Jarislowsky, chief executive officer of Jarislowsky Fraser Ltd. in Montreal. That IPO preceded a 56 percent decline in monthly takeover volume in the U.S.

“When the LBO firms went public, the next day, the game was up,” said Jarislowsky, whose firm manages about $56 billion. “Why is he going public? If it’s going that well, why would you let anybody in on it? Why doesn’t he just sell to his partners?”

Insiders led by Sprott filed last month to sell as much as 15 percent of the company, which manages C$6.9 billion in mutual funds and hedge funds. Sprott Asset plans to sell as many as 23 million shares, according to the sale documents. The founder’s 78 percent stake would be worth about C$1.17 billion at C$10 a share, the mid-range of the estimated offering price. The shares are expected to be sold on May 7.

Don’t be a hog. These trends are not early and the big insiders in the trend are cashing out big time. Not all signs (few actually) flash right in front of you on CNBC or The Wall Street Journal.

Here is Brian’s technical take on oil as well:

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