Deep Market Thoughts…From Fear to Fear!

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  • on April 18th, 2009

In February and March there was sickening fear. Fear that your portfolio was going to zero.

This weekend there is sickening fear that the market will never go down again. Portfolio managers are fearful of underperformance.

On March 9th, Jim Cramer, who is ALWAYS right (editing and selective memory is a wonderful drug), was helping you figure out how low the Dow could go (his estimate was 5,300) when the Dow was already down to 6,500 , not just because he was nervous, but because FEAR was selling page views. The S&P bottomed that exact day and has not looked back. I am hearing, but have not found the link, that last week he declared a NEW Bull Market. OY!

On March 9th (the lows), I was on the beach and was buying . Not in size and not declaring a bottom, just buying because the fear was thick and intense. I had no special indicators because there are no special indicators. I was away from the noise which made buying much easier.

My point is not that Jim is right or wrong, but that nobody has the answer and those making grandiose claims of tops and bottom are pickpockets.

The market is all about Fear and Greed. You must learn to recognize the patterns.

If you chase and succumb to that fear and greed you may be right one time, but you will lose most of the time. You must have a plan and if you are confused, it won’t kill you to do less and lower your position size.

You must stay in the game as opportunities are always presenting themselves.

If indeed we have hit generational lows or are entering a new bull market, the best is yet to come.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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