Deep Market Thoughts…It's All About Cheap Porn!

  • Posted by
  • on August 22nd, 2008

Oil was down 5 percent …Hooray? Nope – still UP on the week.

The Dow was up 200 points…Hooray? Nope – still DOWN for the week.

Things are getting slower and harder for many American’s but the prices of what’s truly important keeps going up and up. I am not talking about the $4 Three Musketeer chocolate bar at the 9th hole of Pebble Beach, but real stuff. We can buy t-shirts and downfill jackets and products we don’t need at lower and lower prices for sure, but don’t lie to yourself about the trouble we are facing.

The only think truly getting cheaper in our world today is….

PORN!

Speaking of porn, Joe Nocera (not him or The Times yet) of The NY Times has a good article on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac . It’s pretty boring at this point to watch the trainwreck that is the US financial system, but it’s better than trading it and getting depressed.

I am so happy to be mostly reading and writing about the market the last few months. I am staying in the game and in the end, my partners and clients have stopped calling me a putz. My trading which has been sporadic has been the best of my career but alas, my size is rather small because of the volatility. There is no secret formula for consistent market returns other than cheating and outsized risk.

The volatility continues to explode and move from sector to sector. This week we had a minor collapse in Salesforce.com (CRM -I am still long – stop $48). I am watching some great years go up in smoke. I know this because I am an investor in trend following funds.

Jim Rogers has become a little too popular for my liking (I loved reading his stuff when you could not find it on CNBC and Fox everyday), but some of his snippets are just fantastic. Here is an interview from a few months back .

I am an eternal optimist, but you MUST read it. My favorite bit:

I would say that for the last 200 years, America’s elected politicians and scoundrels have built up $5 trillion in debt. In the last few weekends, some un-elected officials added another $5 trillion to America’s national debt.

Suddenly we’re on the hook for another $5 trillion. There have been attempts to explain this to the public, about what’s happening with the debt, and with the fact that America’s situation is deteriorating in the world.

I don’t know why it doesn’t sink in. People have other things on their minds, or don’t want to be bothered. Too complicated, or whatever.

I’m sure when the [British Empire] declined there were many people who rang the bell and said: “Guys, we’re making too many mistakes here in the U.K.” And nobody listened until it was too late.

When Spain was in decline, when Rome was in decline, I’m sure there were people who noticed that things were going wrong.

I am trying to rejuvenate myself the last few weeks as you know from my Twitter posts. I hope you all are doing the same. The next few years will be harder than this one.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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