Fertilizer "Turds" on Wallstrip…Agrium (AGU)

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  • on October 30th, 2007

First off, in case you get the wrong idea from todays ending outake…I never inhaled, though I have had the munchies :) .

I have totally missed owning this trend though we have covered the chemical industry on Wallstrip in the past. It’s not just Agrium (AGU or as we like to call it AGOOOOOOOO ) which we are covering today. Look at Potash Corp and Terra Industries and agricultural behemoth and evil mongering ‘seedster’ Monsanto .

Gigantic OY!

Turds ( o.k. fertilizer) are the new Google. Make that Google is starting to act like the ‘turd’ stocks :) .

In hindsight, these stock runs make sense. It’s a perfect storm of increasing global wealth, technology enhancements and the gigantic base (bottom) of the pyramid in what people want with their money…food. If you don’t believe me, check out Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs . Don’t know where the golf fits in.

The analysts will call the stock and industry ‘extended’ and overvalued. They may finally be right. I do know this trend in the stocks is not early so buyers today must mind their position size and stops as the volatility has definitely increased. The extra concern for a company like Agrium is their Canadian domicile. The uber strong Canadian dollar makes their selling into the US much less competitive.

Brian has a look at the technical picture on Agrium today and outlines his concerns about investing in the later stage of a trend:

PS – It was great hanging out with Lindsay on the golf course despite the rain and she is a great athlete. A great sense of humor and patience working with me as always. Just fun. There are lot’s of new faces at Wallstrip mixed with the old and I interviewed them for this weekend’s Naked Putz as well.

Disclosure – No positions

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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