Investing in 2018 – Minimax Regret

This iguana versus snakes video from Planet Earth blew my mind. I have watched it 20 times.

Ok now to my idea for the day:

I loved Ben Hunt’s piece at Epsilon Theory titled ‘The Three Body Problem‘. It is long and winding, but if you have invested or traded the last 10 years, a lot will ring true.

My fave nugget was this:

I think we should adopt a classic game theory strategy for dealing with uncertain systems — minimax regret. The idea is simple, but the implications profound: instead of seeking to maximize returns, we seek to minimize our maximum regret. Keep in mind that our maximum regret may not be ruinous loss! I know plenty of people whose maximum regret is not keeping up with the Joneses. In fact, from a business model perspective, that’s more common than not. Or if you’ve bought into Bitcoin north of $15,000 per coin, I think you know what I’m talking about, too. The point being that we need to be painfully honest with ourselves about our sources of regret and target our investments accordingly. If we can be this honest with ourselves, it’s a VERY powerful strategy.


Also published on Medium.