Mr. Market is Speaking very Loudly!

Posted by Howard
on September 11th, 2006

Lot’s to ramble on here as the market was cruel today. The numbers mask the punishment and broken trends so don’t be fooled.

Gold – goodbye – broken – Was stopped out of most of my positions the last 7 days.
Oil – sayonara – stopped out this summer and SHOULD HAVE GONE SHORT.
Tech – sexy again? Been shopping a little
Inflation – market says no – my wallet says YES
Rates – no idea
New Highs – my bread and butter – slim pickins’

I have done very little the last 4-5 months except trade some gold, and buy some aapl, ebay, more akamai, defense, drugs, pawn shops etc..There are very few working themes left. GPS is now very mixed and Akamai stands alone atop the tech heap.

With respect to Akamai – some genius at Pacific Growth Equities initiates Akamai with a buy today . I love Akamai. I have owned it since 12. I see no reason to sell it. But what is this guy being paid for. Did he just hear of YouTube and iTunes?

I digress and apologize – Where are we today?

Here is where my trusted source Degraaf from Lehman thinks we stand today. Basically – he has no opinion worth pounding the table. I really dont get excited about much that DeGraaf says until he pounds the table. he has been quiet for months. MOST IMPORTANT – is his caution and picture of commodities. The adobe file is right below:

market today.pdf

What other insights do I have?

This market is just plain tough. If I were a gambling man I would be short, but the break in oil and gold leads me to believe that Mr. market has some tricks up his sleeve. I will keep doing less until trends reemerge and I see NOTHING to get me excited these days -except WALLSTRIP :) . By the way – please sign up at the site for email updates of the show.

To conclude – why do anything if the charts look like those below – full of broken trends (charts courtesy of TraderTim - who is really smiling these days ). Click on the charts for enlargements.

Here is the oil Index – hilarious inclusion of the Brady Bunch looking up at the trendlines. Also note that today with the OIH closing at 125, Mr. Brady just swallowed the whole freaking index :)

Next is the Trannies – which I said a while back were broken (see my first video). With oil down 12 plus dollars from the high, their inability to rally makes me think they really may be toast for now.

I repeat – nothing except selected tech excites me here.

If you must need to trade – can’t help you and if you want to short – go with the hot hand – Mr. Negative himself TraderTim.

Good posts both here and here with all the fancy charts :(

Can’t wait for the Apple meeting tomorrow. Everything could change!

PS – Jordan Glasner – you happy now :)

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