State of The Markets…Everyone in the Pool

This made me laugh today:

One more laugh because it is Sunday and Hawaii was not obliterated.

Ok…here we go.

It is hard to find any weakness in the markets right now.

Scroll through this ‘Chartstorm‘ to see what I mean.

It is this once in a lifetime market that makes me glad I am a trend follower. I know I will be ‘long at the top‘. I like this riff from the post:

It seems people have a fear of being long at the “top” or caught in a bear market. I have pre-defined exit points for all positions. I know exactly what gets me in and what gets me out, I just don’t try to predict when it will happen or rationalize why. Trading with these pre-determined exit strategies allows me to continue to hold my long positions, risk-sized properly, with no hesitation or fear of being caught in a prolonged downtrend. My belief is that by knowing exactly what gets me out, from a technical price based perspective, I don’t feel the need to try to anticipate when the top is coming. I have fully accepted that I will be long at the top, that is the only way that I can ensure that I will catch the entire long term uptrends, which have been significantly profitable.

At the same time, I continue to believe the other side of this trend will be brutal and terrifying.

What do I mean?

I loved this piece from Morgan Housel titled ‘The Thrill of Uncertainty‘. I won’t pick any particular pieces to highlight because you should read it all.

Finally, take a look at this Bear Sterns chart (RIP 2008) as a friendly reminder of what can wrong when arrogance, fraud and leverage unwind…

Have a great Sunday.


Also published on Medium.