Thank F@#king Goodness We are Not in a Recession!

  • Posted by
  • on October 23rd, 2008

While CNBC spends 24 hours debating whether we are entering a recession, the world has imploded.

When CNBC finally starts talking about the fact that we are in/have been in a recession for the last 12 months, they will start filling the Octabox with how to deal with it. The Octabox will than be wrong for 12 more months. TechCrunch’s deadpool will be full up and we will be 12 months closer to the death of Mahalo, but I digress.

Luckily for you, Umair blogs and he has been pretty freaking right about many of our problems well before the stock markets cared. Here, he talks about how we could be dooomed dealing with this recession with old tactics . Buzz kill!

Since I read Umair, I was shorting stocks today (see my twitter feed) and although it felt amateurish to be momentum shorting into the most sickening stock market declines in history, it will likely be smart. Once in a while, the PUTS in the Put/Call ratio are just right. I made a quick 15 percent profit shorting US Air when I saw the mug of the CEO waxing positively about his company. That’s just criminal and I tweeted the trade. I put on more retail shorts, added to my Capital One short and got long some ‘triple lindy’ reverse index ETF’s. I will now likely do the same on any early rallies until it stops working. I am not using large positions, but I am paid to try and make money while we burn for our financial sinning. I also have been buying stocks (wrong), but am still less than 15 percent net exposed to the stock market in my fund. I could go completely to cash and just watch, but I have never claimed to be smart.

For those that think the S&P is ‘Oversold’ or just can’t go down any further after falling this far this fast, I offer up the following devastating examples:

1. Russia

2. Shippers

Take the time to really look at the implosions. It is historical. It is ‘THE’ outlier event (I am sick of ‘Black Swan’ at this point) that will put thousands of hedge funds out of business. I have taken some gynormous percentage losses trying to prop up Russia with my small buys starting at $30 in RSX (less than 30 days ago). It is $14 today and accelerating towards ZERO. I am embarrassed for this amateurish behavior, but I will learn from it.

While we stay in ‘outlier’ territory anything can happen so do as I have been saying since January (less) and not what I am doing (Running to Stand Still).

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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