I have one market theory…the tape is good or bad.
Technology has been factored into almost all industries and because the world is socially and mobile connected. The one that lags behind the most is Wall Street. Yes, Wall Street has given us derivatives, 4x leverage ETF’s, HFT’s and a crowd around the one pipe at The Fed, but they will never catch up to the world in mobile and social.
Wall Street, in the era of social leverage, is left to hoarding, scheming and chasing and the individual has an unprecedented edge.
Here is one recent example of noise…
Most investors have heard of Dow Theory. Here is a link. I have always been skeptical of number 4 (stock market averages must confirm each other), but not enough to care… until recently.
There has been much chatter – usually from the underinvested, or people on the wrong side of the trend – that the Dow Transports has not confirmed the New Highs in the Dow Jones (here is CNBC for example)
The Dow Transports is made up of 20 stocks. This link has a good breakdown. What the old Dow theory does not take into account is UBER, LYFT, the hundreds of competitors, ecommerce, companies staying private longer, google maps etc….
Love or hate $UBER, it’s recent pricing of $50 billion makes it worth $300 million more than Federal Express ($FDX). Fedex did $49 billion in sales in 2014 so I am sure every Wall Street analyst is scratching their head. Fedex also works on just a 5 percent profit margin and carries $7 billion in debt.
Based on my modern interpretation of a ‘Transportation Index’ – one which includes $UBER – all-time highs have been a daily phenomenon.
I live on the edge of old and new and the noise and the quiet. I love them both. I would be a better investor if I was not fascinated by the noise and just fascinated by the new.
History is important. Math is important. Price is important. Who you follow is important.
Wall Street and Dow Theories on the other hand…