We are Sooo F#%&$^%ked…Part Trois (In Honor of my Trip to Paris)

  • Posted by
  • on December 4th, 2008

I am sooo looking forward to paying 16 buck for a juice and croissant next Tuesday in Paris.

Today I decided to wrap up my year with stocks. I had a few good scalps the last few weeks, but it’s a waste of time trading this broken market relative to the money I have at work elsewhere. I had a fantastic year making new friends on this blog and twitter while losing a bit in the stock market. My private investment exits saved this year but I will take it. I am glad I recognized the disaster in January and took most of my stock losses at the time.

If I see something spectacular I will make a move, likely tomorrow :) , but with the trend so deeply down and the world in denial, I think the risk/rewards relative to the efforts are not in sync. Hopefully this marks a turn in the markets and those long and leveraged can salvage a horrible year. I would be happy. I too would make some money in the sliver of stocks that I own. Kudlow would stay off the booze and the blow in 2009 and Mahalo would last into 2012 without revenue.

I have been driving around my great city of Phoenix the last three weeks eyeballing homes and for sale signs and occassionally checking in with agents for a tour. I am at an all-time high in amazement at the disconnect that sellers have with the world that is NOW.

I am only using Phoenix as an example, but I know this town. I believe in the future of this city. People chase the sun, always have, always will.

That said, homes are way too big from this boom. No American Family needs more than 4,000 square feet of living space. The disconnect is in price/square foot and rookie speculators. It is a train wreck that has ONLY JUST BEGUN at the high end of Phoenix. Don’t even get me started about suburbia desert. Let’s just call that a zero. Over. Done. Maybe 15 years to break even. The rise in the US Dollar that could easily accelerate will only make things worse in this perfect storm of SHIT at the high end of real estate. The foreigners that bought US Porsches and 10,000 square foot homes have evaporated. My goal is to buy a 10,000 square foot home on the mountain and donate it to an orphanage. I expect to pay $1 so It could be a few months.

So back to why we are sooo f@$@!ked.

There is this assanine thread started by Larry Kudlow about the mustard seed and the economy, a mustard seed that he must have snorted mixed in with a line of blow. You can read a great Doug Kass piece about it because I am exhausted from the stupidity of Larry.

There is way too much cheerleadding and not enough leading. There are way too many conflicts of interest at the top and not enough Roger Ehrenberg’s thinking of real solutions.

The very hot hands continue to preach selling the rallies .

Because of this, we are screwed for now and the shortsellers with no uptick rules and full of bravado as hedge funds redeem will carry the flag for the forseeable future.

Kiss the kids, have a barbeque (burn your mortgage statement), go skiing , punch a research analyst, set up a fake Twitter account and amuse yourself , send hate mail to CNBC, but most importantly protect your capital.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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