That’s the ultimate questions for 2009.
I have long said turn off the TV. There are enough great blogs linking to what you need to know that you should save lot’s of hours, headaches and money as we head into 2009 after the most brutal year in stock market history.
I am working on a top 30-50 blog/twitter list of people to follow in 2009 (hopefully by the end of the week), but may just link to other lists because I am finding some great names in the lists people are sending me.
I am a trend follower so am sticking with many of the bloggers that helped me through 2008, but I want some fresh voices in my head as well. We all need fresh voices. One of the reasons I get so excited about StockTwits is the ‘farm system’ we are creating for financial voices.
I know one thing from 2008…WE ARE IN UNCHARTED WATERS.
When in uncharted waters you slow down, you DO NOT SPEED UP . You do less and you invest in smaller sizes. The noise from the media re the financial crisis is deafening. Make sure you get extra still and quiet with your time and money.
Anyone that gets in your face about investing in 2009 is someone that can’t be trusted.
I think the dollar is busted, Capital One is a goner, Best Buy and Retail are screwed, Commercial Real Estate is entering hell and oil is cheap (paying $35 to fill up my truck is wrong), but I won’t bet the farm on any of these. I am in theses positions, but half of what I normally would because of the uncharted financial waters. Same thing with my longs of Apple, Google, Gold, Amazon and Salesforce.com for the time being.
Our government is the wild card and the only sure thing is that they are WILD. They have less of a clue than you or me, that’s the ONLY thing I am sure of. They have more conflicts than you or me as well.
The hot hand is Nassim Taleb. The issue is whether the Black Swan has happened or just starting. I have no idea, but you should at least consider that it is just beginning.