Apple…What’s it Worth? … and ‘Momentum Monday’

Apple is worth $530/share or about $480 billion. That’s what it closed at at 4 pm est today.

Everything else is ‘inside baseball’ and obviously why I created Stocktwits with our amazing team and investors. It’s boring for most of the world, but for those of us that care, this is our business and lifestyle.

On Stocktwits alone we can quickly curate 20 AWESOME posts/charts/ideas on Apple earnings gameplans before the market even opens.

It’s impossible to value a Company that is just starting out and maybe harder to value a company the size of Apple. The stock market is great because it allows us to speculate, invest, hedge and trade against the ‘price’ that we see on the screen (now a commodity thank goodness) and the price we believe a company will trade at in the future. It’s not much more complicated than that at the surface.

Underneath it gets messier.

Valuations are moving targets. Furthermore, assuming financial valuations were easily made, I doubt any analyst or investor could properly price in the ‘mood of the market'(and that is pre Stocktwits, Facebook and Twitter). Throw in the network effect of today’s social web and a global marketplace and you only look silly claiming a company is overvalued or undervalued.

I got long Apple (small position) in my hedge fund on October 15th (see here at $507). I like the possible ‘Burberry’ effect, and have said that while I believe Apple is overowned by funds, it is owned for the wrong reasons. The ‘blogosphere’ is demanding a watch. Based on what the we have seen from Samsung, Sony, Qualcomm and soon Google, not launching a watch might be the best product decision of the year for Apple. That’s why Tim Cook is the CEO, not a tech blogger or financial analyst.

I am very bullish on Mac Sales long term. I like this sales chart considering the ‘death of the PC’.

I am bearish on everyone else at retail (storefronts) who is trying or thinking about selling mobile phones and computer hardware. Sure volumes are good at Verizon, AT&T stores and Best Buy, but there is no loyalty or ‘false’ loyalty involved.

On a non-financial basis, Apple is worth WAY more than it market cap implies. It has singlehandedly made Wall Street take the social web more seriously. Sure Rupert Murdoch Tweets and Reed Hastings ($NFLX) is on the bleeding edge of this, but Carl Icahn dragged Apple to the table with his tweets (and made Investment Banks and CNBC looking more 1990’s than ever).

Apple aside, there has never been a better time to invest and it is a totally entrepreneurial journey that ANYONE (here is a 17 year old on Stocktwits) can do part time or full-time.

On todays ‘Momentum Monday’ we talk markets, Puerto Rico, swing trading (growing in popularity) and trends including ‘Fashology’ with my friend Frank Zorilla (Zortrades).

Disclosure – I have no idea how long I will hold Apple but will post on the streams when I do sell it.


  1. JJ says:

    There is no way U can take all the trades U learn about on stocktwits but it is amazing to see the thought process unfold for those that take the trades. Twitter is the platform for people that want to be on CNBC. If I get my way I will buy CNBC and shut it down for good.

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