The Biotech Boom …Too Late to Buy?…and Why Everyone Should Allocate to Trend Followers…

If being right and not making money is a sin…I am going to hell. A very hot part of it.

Every year I underperform in the markets. Not the averages, just my abilities based on the opportunities. I buy too late, I sell to soon.

I am at mostly at peace with it because of the opportunities.

They just keep coming.

Staying in the business has been the way I have operated since 1998 when I started my hedge fund and thought it would be my life work. Sixteen years later I still have most of my original limited partners. They know I have distractions and flaws and I could probably be better at what I do, but they understand my core beliefs.

The most stressed I have ever been a bout a trend is this boom in biotech. It’s not like I have not chrinicled the opportunity on this blog. Here are just a few of the blog posts. I have pretty much missed the whole run since the boom started in March 2009. It’s 5 years later and while I continue to believe it will continue, I don’t know how to own companies that have to spend so much to get started and have so many binary events.

In hindsight owning the ETF $IBB was enough. Treating it like the way I invest in Google and trusting the tailwinds of technology, easy money and money flow.

The geeks are proud of their Facebooks and Twitter, but take a look at Illumina, a DNA sequencer:

New all-time highs for $ILMN at $188. It was trading under $1 in 2003.

— Ivaylo Ivanov (@ivanhoff) Oct. 22 at 08:41 AM

I have no idea when this trend ends, but it is why I trust a certain amount of my money to classic trend following models like the SL50 product Ivan and I created. It is fun to be right and pick stocks, but the anxiety of missing out on huge trends for people wired like me is something that a simple trend following allocation can ease.


  1. Gordon Bowman says:

    I agree. Haven’t been able to wrap my head around biotech. I’ve made some money with some of the winners ($GILD, $CELG, etc.) but like you, I usually sell too soon.

    As you point out though, the opportunities thankfully keep coming!

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