Momentum Monday…The Reopening Is Real!

It is really happening this time.

The reopening is real.

I saw it in Amsterdam. The Dutch had been locked up a long time. They are not going back inside for anyone or anything.

Here in Phoenix I am not sure we were ever locked down, but I did hit the mall this weekend to grab a few things and it was packed.

The airports have been busy for a while now.

The money is being printed and now it is being spent on more than just e-commerce.

The shallow S&P five percent dip was bought last week.

Even though rates surged last week, software and growth stocks held their own. I will be watching this relationship closely.

As always, Ivanhoff and I tour the markets looking for and at the momentum. You can watch this weeks episode right here on YouTube. I have also embedded it on the blog below:

The reopening stocks are perking like hotels, AirBnb, Live Nation, Booking.com ($BKNG) and even the airlines. Even $UBER is cranking.

It is not just the reopening stocks working but some of the lockdown big winners like Peloton and Zoom are in nasty bear markets

Doordash is back at all-time highs while Fedex is crashing. The last mile is worth the most to investors right now.

Here are Ivanhoff’s market notes:

This time the bounce was led by small caps and “back-to-normal” stocks – not only financials and energy but also travel and leisure. Airlines were the best performing industry for the week followed by oil & gas, and entertainment. The market is acting as if Covid will be gone in a few months or at least its impact will be reduced. Either that, or we just witnessed just another quick sector rotation and short covering that won’t last long.

We saw a big spike in interest rates after the FOMC briefing last week. The Fed is acknowledging that inflation might be a bit higher and linger longer than previously expected. One small change in the Fed’s message can lead to a big move in financial markets which like to extrapolate and discount what could happen 6 months in the future. Long-term US Treasuries sold off and financials took off. With banks so strong, it’s hard to imagine SPY having any significant pullback any time soon.

Tech is not looking too shabby either. Software (IGV) and Semiconductors (SMH) never closed below their 50-day moving average and had a powerful bounce after the gap down last Monday. One would think that rising interest rates will hit richly-valued tech names, but so far we are not seeing any evidence of it. Stocks like U, SNOW, ZS, CRWD, BILL, ESTC, DDOG, ZI, TTD, AVLR, TEAM, CRM, DOCN, NET, NTNX, PLAN, SPLK, WDAY, PLTR, OKTA, DLO, etc. are either pushing higher or consolidating sideways. This is not a price action of a market worried about inflation too much.

Another thing that stood out late last week is the carbon emissions ETF – KRBN, making new all-time highs. This explains the strength in many electric vehicles stocks – TSLA, GOEV, LCID, FSR, etc.

Elsewhere…

Here is the Stocktwits momentum 25 lists which is where I start my investing week.

Here is Charlie’s ‘7 Chart Sunday‘.

In the SPAC world, I am really seeing the effect of too much money as 3/5 of the over 500 SPAC’s in market have not found a target. Here is Nikita’s weekly SPAC market update.

It is good to be home. I have an insane work schedule through the end of the year so I am glad I got my crazy suffering vacation behind me.

Have a great week.

Sunday Market Reads And Listens and My Dolomite Trip From The Eyes Of A Drone

I spent a lot of time writing about my exhilarating trip to the Dolomites. As part of the tour, Biko Adventures (team of three) put together this amazing short movie of our ride with incredible camera angle footage by the three using cameras and iphones and drones. The drone footage is incredible. Now that I have seen it I would never do another trip like this without the benefit of sone talented person offering this service. I have emedded it here as well:

Onwards…

It was Evergrande expert week on the internet. Everyone had a strong opinion on how it would affect the markets so I just ignored them all.

I waited for Matt Levine’s take because he would get right to the heart of it:

I am very far from an expert on the situation at giant indebted property company China Evergrande Group, but I will say that two things that appear to be true are:

It owes 1.6 million apartments to people who have put down cash deposits, and it may have trouble delivering them; and
It owes billions of dollars in cash to people who have bought “wealth management products” (retail debt instruments), and it will have trouble paying them, to the point that it has offered to give them apartments instead of money.
This strikes me as inefficient. If you have some apartments, you should deliver them to people to whom you owe apartments. Then you take the cash from those people and deliver it to the people to whom you owe cash? Again I claim no expertise here and I am sure they have their reasons, but that’s how I would do it. I gather that the people with the wealth management products do not want the apartments, but the people who have put down deposits for apartments do want the apartments.[1]

It seems to me that what is interesting about Evergrande is not so much the magnitude of its debt problems but their variety. Evergrande owes money to Chinese banks. It owes money to foreign hedge funds, and foreign investors own its stock. It owes money to suppliers, and to Chinese retail investors in those wealth management products. And it owes apartments to buyers. And the retail investors who bought Evergrande wealth management products were often also Evergrande homeowners, because the products were sold at Evergrande buildings

Read Matt’s full post here.

The Evergrande story is like most stories, long term uneventful if you have a good investing plan. I liked this piece from Nick Maggiulli titled ‘Why Buying the Dip is a Terrible Investment Strategy‘. The gist…dollar cost averaging is a much better plan for getting invested and higher returns.

Schwab strategist Liz Ann Sonders reminiscences on 35 years as a strategist.

Here is Morgan Housel on ‘History’s Seductive Beliefs‘.

‘You Will Work For a Protocol Someday – an interesting read on Future of Work

And finally, this weeks listen, Patrick O sat with Spotify founder Daniel Ek. Really enjoyed it.

I am going for a ride than plant myself in front of YouTube TV for Ryder Cup final day.

What Happens If Interest Rates Rise – A TextBook Refresher

My friend Steve Strazza had a great primer on what might happen if interest rates rise. The gist:

We finally got a major resolution in what we consider one of the most important charts in the world these days.

I’m talking about the US 10-year yield reclaiming that critical 1.40% level this week. And this begs the question as to what a rising rate environment might mean for investor portfolios.

Well, one thing we know for sure is we want to stay away from bonds… unless we’re shorting them.

But how do we want to position ourselves in the stock market if yields are breaking out? It’s simple, really.

Some stocks do better with rising/higher rates, while others thrive in markets characterized by low growth and low yields. If this is the beginning of a fresh move higher for yields, then we want to be focused on buying the stocks that are likely to benefit the most.

It all goes back to the global growth, reflation, and reopening trade these days. It’s cyclical and value stocks. Those are the groups that should outperform.

Meanwhile, growth and tech stocks–and any long-duration assets, for that matter–could come under pressure, as they become relatively less attractive during periods where more economically sensitive areas are offering more appealing growth prospects.

Steve concludes with:

So, what are some of these implications?

Maybe these upside resolutions in yields are what the market needs to kick start a fresh leg higher. What we’re watching for now is whether or not we finally start seeing similar resolutions in some of the key stock charts we’re watching, such as Small-Caps, Financials, diversified international indexes, even Crude Oil.

We’re also watching our ratio charts for signs that risk appetite may be picking back up.

As for how we want to position ourselves to capitalize on a potential rising rate environment, it’s Energy, Financials, and all the other cyclical sectors. Value, High Beta, and international stocks should also be beneficiaries.

I did noticed yesterday that Schwab hit an all-time high.

Have a great weekend everyone.

You Snooze You Lose?

The word of seed investing has changed so much since I began investing in the 1990’s.

I began to do it full time in 2006 as web 2.0 was getting started. I invested in GolfNow.com and Lifelock both out of Phoenix and started Wallstrip. Forget about the financial terms, the process was slow. There was no such thing as a ‘hot deal’. Putting together rounds took time. You met your investors, you spent time with them, you carefully tried to construct your cap table and if you could raise money, there were some generally accepted ranges that were followed.

The venture capitalists had a lot more power over the terms and cap table.

With the proliferation of technology, software eating the world, and the FED printing endlessly, today the founders at the seed stage have a lot more power.

I have no idea if this is good or bad, it just is. If you want to invest in 2021, you have to make more rapid decisions. We have more choices and less time to make decisions so at times it feels overwhelming.

Fred Wilson wrote a post titled ‘Blinking‘ that discusses the trend and how they deal with it and what it means. He concludes with:

It is tempting to mourn the loss of careful and considered investing but from where I sit it seems gone for good, at least for early stage venture capital, so I think it’s a better use of our time to spend adapting to the market, as my partner Brad likes to say, and building the conviction to act quickly and decisively.

There is no law that says you have to conform to the new ‘rules of engagement’ but I am with Fred and Union Square that my time is better spent adapting to the market than waiting for it to come back to me.

Greg Bettinelli, Partner at Upfront, on ‘Walking Tall’, Large Secondary Markets, and Innovation

Greg Bettinelli, a partner at Upfront, dropped in to discuss how he came to tech, the GOAT pivot into the StubHub for sneakers, and why fractionalized assets require regulatory oversight. Prior to joining Upfront, Greg was the CMO for HauteLook (acquired by Nordstrom), an EVP at Live Nation, and held multiple leadership positions at eBay, where he led their acquisition of StubHub in 2007. Greg is a good friend, an awesome golfer, and we’re both investors in Rally Rd. Enjoy!

You can listen to the podcast here on Spotify or Apple and now all the episodes are on my YouTube channel as well.

For more details on today’s conversation read on below…

Guest: Greg Bettinelli

Profile: Partner at Upfront

Where to Find Him: Twitter

What’s Greg Panicked About?: Being on fire. Literally and figuratively.

The Takeaway:

Greg explains why Richard Dreyfuss should’ve gotten an Oscar for Let it Ride – the original speculation meme – long before Wall Street Bets was cool. We talk about why he’s panicked about fires: he was evacuated from his home at 3:20 in the morning, lived in a hotel for a week, and ended up moving so he wouldn’t have to worry about catching on fire every time the wind blew. And of course, we talk markets – finding those markets where the secondary market can be bigger than the primary market. How it’s all leading to the fractionalizing of shares; buying five bucks worth of something versus buying the whole thing. As you begin to fractionalize and it tends to spread, we discuss the need for less friction and the eventual need for a regulatory framework. We end the discussion with the figurative fires of how much is happening around consumer and business behavior, particularly post COVID, and Greg’s search for great teams in what he calls the “founder-market fit”.

Favorite Quotes:

“Golf was the first thing I was better at than all my friends and that’s why I played.”

“The only thing that hasn’t changed post-COVID is there’s still only 24 hours in a day, and that is the only thing we know is going to be consistent in the future.”

Living The Dream…This Week Amsterdam and The Network Is The Thing.

People are telling me I am living the dream.

Lately it does feel that way.

If I can inspire people sharing my stories both good and bad while ‘living this dream’ …color me happy.

I tell people that to live these ‘dreams’ you have to experience the ‘nightmares’.

Nightmares are relative based on what base you were born on. I imagine I was born on third base and have faced a pitcher with a ‘tell’.

I try not to think about all this too much but it has been coming up in conversations and in the streams.

I caught a magical week to be in Amsterdam. The weather is perfect and the streets are quiet.

The fintech ‘money’ show is in town so I have got to see a bunch of friends in the industry, meet a lot of fresh faces and see LP’s and portfolio founders.

We have one investment here in Amsterdam called Secfi (growing fast) and it was great to have some face to face strategy time.

I’ve taken advantage of the great weather with runs through the parks and museum neighborhood and some bike rides through the city.

Riding a city bike in Amsterdam requires more concentration than coming down the Alps at 40 miles per hour. I joked on Twitter that my bike was stolen, but I was just drinking a coffee and watching my bike and seeing what kind of responses I would get. The range of responses in my stream were really incredible.

Last night we had dinner at Brasserie Lolita which was really good. It was a fintech dinner organized by my pal Alex Tarhini. One of the great joys of my job is helping young people network and get going in a career of investing. I met Alex years ago on the Stocktwits streams. He was living in Houston trading stocks and wanted to break into venture. I introduced him to the Techstars New York team and off he went working on the fintech classes in the most entry level way you could get started. Today he is a venture partner at Point 72 living in London. He has his first Unicorn under his belt and I could not be happier.

Go Alex…

By changing my Twitter handle to Amsterdam Lindzon, my inbox is flowing with invites and incredible meeting opportunities that I have been able to take. The network is the thing!

PS – I treated myself to a stay at The Conservatorium hotel which is just spectacular.

Momentum Monday – Hard To Complain

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

The markets were tame while I took time away.

Ivanhoff caught me up quickly on this week’s Momentum Monday which you can watch here on YouTube. I have embedded the show below:

Here is what Ivanhoff had to say in summary…

Last week was the closest I’ve seen to a “market of stocks” environment in a long time. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 pulled back on large volume, there were plenty of current and former momentum stocks that pushed higher.

Seasonally, the third week of September (next week) is the weakest in the entire year. It should not be a big surprise if we see more turbulence. It would be normal if QQQ tests its August highs near 370 which coincides with its 50-day moving average.

The S&P 500 hasn’t spent more than one day below its 50-day moving average so far this year. This might be about to change next week. From a big picture perspective, there is no reason to get overly bearish yet. If you look at a chart of SPY, you will notice that every swing low has been above the previous swing low while every swing high has been above the previous swing high. This is the definition of an uptrend. SPY is still in one until it closed below 436.

It is interesting to see so many FANG stocks under pressure – AAPL, GOOGL, FB, NVDA, etc. I don’t know if it’s the market worrying about new anti-competitive practices in Big tech or simply people freeing up some cash to enter smaller-cap, more speculative growth names. If it’s the latter, we should see the small-cap index Russell 2k (IWM) and growth/momentum ETFs like ARKK and FFTY start to outperform. If all of a sudden there’s a spike in correlations, meaning small-cap IWM breaks below 220 and high-momentum stocks start to drop on big volume, then we might be in for a bigger correction.

I am mostly with Ivanhoff here.

I am not excited about any particular stock or adding new positions right here. Crypto leaders have been selling off hard but that was long overdue. People have been sloppy and awarded for chasing and now with a quick selloff we will see how many dip buyers exist and how strong these new buyers are.

Like always I start my week scanning the Stocktwits 25 momentum lists for ideas that might resonate with me as longer term growth ideas whose catalysts I understand.

Nikita has her weekly SPAC market update here.

Have a great week.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here

Back to Work…Some Sunday Reads and Netflix Schumacher a Must Watch

I am headed to Munich today after coming out of the Dolomites.

I was too tired each evening to catch up on much work but am getting right back to work this week. I am a great mix of tired and rested.

A few readers were upset about all the biking and personal pictures and stories thinking this is ‘only’ a financial blog. Two things I like to remind people when they ask…

1. This is my personal blog and I journal for me. I want to track some great moments in my life, not just financial moments.

2. These personal stories and moments make me a better investor, improve my network and help me think about the big picture trends. That helps me be a better investor, which is my day job and if I am a better investor, hopefully you become a better investor as I diest all of it and write it down over time on this blog.

Onwards…

I got so many nice birthday wishes and have been trying to get back to everyone…thanks so much.

I also got this really nice email out of the blue from someone who reads this blog…

On August 31,2021 I became an IRA millionaire, total net worth > $1.5 million! That may not sound like something to brag about to some folks, but it is to me.Luckily I discovered you and Ivanoff. You see, I am 66 years old.- I am retired. A Kentucky hillbilly. No silver spoon. No pedigree. Not much to look at. Not a chance. No money and no investing experience. I bought 8 To 80 at a used book store.That was less than 10 years ago. As someone once asked ,”Would you rather get advice from your brother-in- law or from a winner?” Anyway, Thanks for your part in making my family better off financially. Enjoy the ride. Don.

Tomorrow is Momentum Monday and there is much to still love about the momentum in the markets from seed stage all the way through the public markets. We are also through a seasonally shaky time for stocks heading into a historically stronger season for stocks. There is also a be a lot of pessimism about stocks/valuations etc which is generally fuel for the market to keep climbing a wall of worry.

BUT,

I will share a few posts that cover my concerns…

Charlie asks ‘Is It A Time For Prudence‘?

Josh Brown lays down his beef with crypto and I agree.

Elsewhere…

I love Marc Rubinstein’s blog on all things financial. This piece on Evergrande (Chinese real estate conglomerate) is excellent.

If you are an LP of Social Leverage you get a lot of SPV (Single Purpose Vehicle) investment opportunities. My friends Jenny and Ari have a great ‘get up to speed guide on SPV’s

We have a new weekly Social Leverage update newsletter that Pete is organizing and writing for us. You might like to check it out.

The idea of a ‘financial super app’ started in China with Ant Financial . Now China is breaking it up. I continue to believe Americans will choose a constellation of financial apps but that won’t stop the acquisition frenzy underway by Goldman, Square, Paypal etc.

Fascinating thread on ‘Tariff Engineering

Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors‘ is an excellent read.

I did not listen to any podcasts this week so I will share a couple next week.

I did watch a great documentary on Netflix about Michael Schumacher the legendary Forumala 1 champion.

Have a great Sunday.

Goodbye Dolomites

Today is my last day of riding in the Dolomites and we are doing it in style from Cortina.

Each day has been more fun, harder climbs and better food than the last.

Yesterday was a brutal day of climbing capped by Giau. I earned this cap…

My good friends Michael and Uli (Amsterdam and Copenhagen) happened to be riding in the Dolomites so we met at the top of the mountain for lunch…

For today’s ride, Fillipo arranged for his friend Michael the founder of Festka bikes (which we are all using and loving) to join. Michael was a pro cyclist and ten years ago founded his company in Prague. He has some great entrepreneurship stories (always a reminder how good American entrepreneurs have it). Wet I don’t think he weighs 135 pounds so it will be fun to learn a few tricks and watch him fly up a mountain.

I am looking forward to paying this great trip forward with different groups of people over the years in all kinds of different European cycling spots.

Have a great Saturday.

Happy 56th Howie

I am 56 today.

I am doing what I want to do with some friends today (riding up and down mountains and over eating) and what I love to do everyday with my partners Gary and Tom at Social Leverage.

Ellen is having a great year and so are Max and Rachel. I am so grateful for that.

I was happy to see my 54th year behind me, and now it will be really tough top my 55th.

Having a routine helps. COVID forced some routine changes that were almost all good for me personally and in business. I won’t knock luck and good fortune.

My big plan for this year is to work on my weaknesses which are my diet and a fresh fitness routine. I am going to pay up for that luxury.

I wake up every morning and have a blank screen to fill with words that get sent to tens of thousands of people. It is really a gift to share my random thoughts and get so much great feedback and community.

Thanks everyone.