Saturday Reads…

Happy Saturday everyone.

I am catching up on some reads this morning in Coronado so I thought I would share them.

First is Morgan Housel’s ‘When Everyone Is A Genius‘.

Ben Thompson on Clubhouse…calling it the first airpod social network – Clubhouse’s Inevitability.

I quote my friend Fred Wilson a lot because he has the ability to predict the future a lot. Here is his 2013 post about investing in Coinbase (now doing a direct listing near $100 BILLION).

I will end with a podcast actually as WordPress founder Matt Mullenweg talks with Patrick O’Shaugnessy about the future of the internet.

Crypto – It Is Different This Time

I have been astonished as you know by the growth of crypto.

I remember back in 2017 when I noticed that Stocktwits message volume on Bitcoin ($BTC.X) surpassed that of $SPY. I knew Bitcoin was here to stay and Bitcoin went on to $19,000 before heading into its bear market.

Today Bitcoin is near $50,000.

Back in November of 2020, something new started to happen on Stocktwits with respect to crypto.

After the close on Friday until the open of the futures on Sunday, all Stocktwits trending tickers turned crypto. The weekend messages on Stocktwits have increased 400 percent.

That has continued each weekend.

This is not a bubble…it is a sea change.

I am extremely confident there is enough capital and profits in the digital/crypto world that will never make it back to the physical world that the pace of development and spend will continue to accelerate.

All kinds of unintended consequences lie ahead.

Jason Gardner, Founder & CEO of Marqeta, Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss Making It as a Fintech Entrepreneur

I had the pleasure of chatting with fintech entrepreneur – and more importantly fellow Arizona State University alum – Jason Gardner on this weeks episode of Panic with Friends. Jason and I were originally introduced through our mutual friend and former Panic guest Ryan Gilbert. While it was fun to reminisce about our time at ASU on this episode, it was even more fun to talk about fintech and Jason’s insights on this booming sector.

Jason is at the center of all things fintech. His unicorn company Marqeta, Inc. is “the world’s first open API modern card issuing platform,” which basically means his company makes your payments a whole lot easier. You probably already use Marqeta without even realizing it, with clients such as Uber, Instacart and DoorDash to name a few. In this episode, Jason and I talk about how he got interested in fintech, Marqeta’s origin and success story, open APIs, building capital, neobanks, China, Bitcoin and more.

You can listen to the episode here on Spotify or Apple.

PS…We’ve had some great guests in the past who know a lot about fintech. Here’s three episodes I recommend checking out in case you missed them:

Alpaca Founder Yoshi Yokokawa Explains Their Commission Free Stock Trading API

Patrick O’Shaughnessy, O’Shaughnessy Asset Management CEO and Host of Invest Like the Best, on Fintech, Investing in Founders and More

PARTech ($PAR) CEO Savneet Singh on the Accelerating Software Industry and How to Keep Up with It

Non Fungible Tokens (NFT’s) – Tell Me More Howie

I’m down a rabbit hole now on NFT’s.

A quick refresher from Justin:

NFT’s are are unique items that live on the blockchain. They can be intangible or tangible. They can embed smart contracts and different other forms of licensing and business logic as well. I call it the “internet of cool shit”, but others have called it the “internet of value”, “internet of art”, or the “internet of collectibles”. I personally think this is the killer app for crypto.

Justin is so excited about this new format that he is starting a company and building a product. You can follow along on his blog.

The first person that brought them to my attention was of course Fred Wilson. Here is his explanation as he ‘learns by doing‘.

Michael Batnick went deep on ‘Top Shot’ which has been the ‘killer app’ the crypto crowd has been waiting for. Have a read.

Scott Belsky has a great post about this ‘New Economy of Digital Creativity‘.

This NFT world is likely the greatest unlock of artist opportunity in 100+ years. This isn’t a suboptimal or fringe version of the real-world art economy, it is a vastly improved one.

The easiest way I am being told to ‘learn by doing’ and have some fun speculating is to get a wallet on your browser and the one most recommended to me has been Metamask.

Off you go…

Momentum Monday….Inflation Baby!!

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

Off we go…

Oh boy…the markets keep giving. Don’t ask too many questions. It will get much harder one day.

This week is a bigly week for earnings. Stay on your toes. Stocktwits has an earnings calendar.

Here is the Stocktwits 25 which you can get free each weekend if you follow @stocktwits on Stocktwits or Twitter. It is where I start my weekly momentum work.

I will keep trying to ride the momentum and will keep this week’s post short. I shared a few new ideas in this week’s episode. I like the setups in $EBAY and hate to say it Goldman’s Sack continues to look like a big move higher is still to come. The margins the banks make for helping clients raise money over Zoom is not something they will let go of anytime soon. Less meals, less travel…more margins.

I just don’t believe that the end of COVID will hurt the poster children of COVID stocks – Docusign and Zoom (long $ZM).

Here is this week’s episode to watch/listen on YouTube. I have embedded it on my blog..

Here is Ivanhoff’s quick take:

The signs are all over the tape. Interest rates continue to spike. Soft and hard commodities haven’t been this strong in more than 15 years. The U.S. Dollar is in a downtrend. Stock markets around the world are in an uptrend led by small caps. It could be the new fiscal stimulus or the expectations for the Fed to remain accommodating for the foreseeable future or the vaccinations to end the virus sooner than most believe, but back-to-normal stocks continue to be on fire – airlines, hotels, travelling agencies, leisure stocks in general, oil & gas, financials, industrial metals like copper, nickel, steel, lithium, etc. In the meantime, many of the large and mega-cap stocks which are considered a sure thing in the long-term (AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, FB, NFLX, GOOGL, V, MA, etc), are showing clear relative weakness. The narrative has changed at least for the time being.

The stock market is often acting counter-intuitively. After all, who in his/her right mind would consider buying airlines that are still operating at half capacity and are dependent on government help and sell Apple and Amazon which are reporting record numbers? And yet, this is what is currently happening. The market is looking 6-12 months ahead and trying to discount a different story. The market doesn’t always end up being correct but between the process of discounting the future and the confirmation or rejection of it by reality, many stocks can go up 2-10x. This is why we pay attention to price action. The only things that change are the tickers of the leading stocks; their patterns remain the same.

Have a great week.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here

The Blockchain….What Is On The Other Side?

I continue to watch in awe as Bitcoin crosses $55,000 and Ethereum crosses $2,000.

People are not just counting their digital money any more, they are also collecting and trading digital ‘things’.

For months now, a lot of my younger, male friends have been raving about NBA Top Shot from Dapper Labs.

Buying and selling digital trading cards is NOT for me.

The digital money game is much like the physical money game for me…figure out how to get my account number HIGHER.

Lately I have been mesmerized by FTX.com (if you are in the USA you need to use FTX.US).

I find myself staring at the digital symphony of numbers of all the blockchain tokens and swap prices on my new large desktop.

I am way behind in this new digital financial world, but I am on a mission to play some catch up.

Platforms and Twitter And Of Course Stocktwits…

Twitter is a company I have written a lot about over the years.

Lately ‘the stock’ has had a great run.

Matthew Ball had a great Tweetstorm about the value of Twitter which investors should read.

An old ‘what is a platform?‘ couple of tweets stood out:

16/ @Benthompson talks about the famous “Bill Gates Line”: A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it. Then it’s a platform.”

and,

17/ For years, $Fintwit joked that Twitter is the best example or a platform (and therefore the worst business) because the value it creates is so, so, so enormously above what it captures. And it’s growing. Reason why @DanielSLoeb1, @plaffon and SAC joined Twitter last 6 months

It is always very gratifying seeing great investors discover Twitter’s ($fintwit) magic more than 14 years after I did and was inspired to start Stocktwits…this time Dan Loeb:

I still believe Twitter is a poorly run company, but you can hide a lot of slippage when the markets are bidding ‘rare digital assets’ to the moon… and Twitter’s rare, digital platform is priceless at the moment.

Shopify President Harley Finkelstein Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss the Future of E-Commerce and Positioning Shopify as the Go-To Platform for Entrepreneurs

I love $SHOP

I have owned it since 2016.

I promise you will enjoy this fun conversation I had with Harley Finkelstein the long time Shopify President.

What’s the Panic About:

I’ll jump on any opportunity to bring a fellow Jewish Canadian who shares my love of startups and tech on as a podcast guest. So after sliding into Shopify president Harley Finkelstein’s Twitter DMs and a couple calls later, I got to do just that. Harley’s hustle, spirit and overall success story perfectly embody Shopify’s mission. At only 35 years old, Harley is leading a company that has collectively driven more than $40 billion worth of sales and holds the title of “second largest check-out in America” after Amazon. On top of that, the stock currently sits at approximately $1,400. Not too shabby! But Harley doesn’t want Shopfiy to just be an e-commerce/retail company; he wants it to be the go-to place for entrepreneurs. Shopify has become one of those companies I feel like I understand. I hope after listening to this episode you’ll also understand Shopify and why I love it so much. In this episode, Harley and I chat about Shopify’s journey and success, his career path, law school, turning passion projects into the next big thing, scalability, the evolution of e-commerce and retail, entrepreneurship and more. Enjoy!

You can listen here on Spotify or here on Apple.

PS – This summer I had Alex Danco on the podcast to talk Shopify Money. He was also a fantastic guest. The conversation is evergreen.

How This Boom/Bubble Ends

Because of my Twitter handle these days – first ‘Tiny Bubbles’ and now ‘Frothy McBubbles’ I am getting asked a lot about ‘How This Ends’?

I don’t really know.

Today, Fred Wilson had a post titled ‘How This Ends‘ and I thought it was a good textbook explanation. It is a quick read.

Fred says we are not close to the end of the easy money era.

I am that ‘guy’ who sure loves checking his account during this era of easy money…so thanks FRED and thanks FED.

My sense is that Fred is right, but oh man the other side of all this new stock supply is going to be painful.