Momentum Monday – Let Me Introduce You To Some Blockchains and A New Weekly SPAC Update

Happy Monday everyone

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

I start my momentum week getting ready for markets with The Stocktwits Top 25 for each index.

As always, Ivanhoff and I do our weekly YouTube show ‘Momentum Monday’. It is homebuilders and some related stocks that caught our attention this week. It seems only my favorite tech stocks are struggling and Ivanhoff walks through the mess in Chinese stocks from a hedge fund blowup.

You can watch this weeks show here. I have embedded it below:

Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:

The S&P 500 tested its rising 50-day moving average, bounced and finished the week at new all-time closing highs. What’s different this time is that the typical stocks that have been pushing the market for many years (tech) are 20-50% below their highs from February. The leaders have been mostly cyclical stocks which is something you see at the beginning of a new bull market, not the end. At least, this was the case in 2003. Nowadays, the government and the Fed have an even bigger role. What matters is that capital iis not leaving the market; it’s merely rotating between sectors. Growth is not that scarce anymore and interest rates are rising, so there have been new leaders in the market for the past 3-4 months – home builders, semiconductor equipment, financials. retailers, oil and gas, transportation, restaurants, industrial metals, etc. I don’t know if this is just a blip or it’ll last longer. Such sector-wide trends usually persist for many months.

It’s not just rising interest rates and a major increase in supply that is pressuring tech stocks. The drop started because of those reasons but accelerated by the liquidations of some highly-leveraged momentum hedge funds. The talk is that Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital had to liquidate his entire $15 Billion position on over $80 Billion gross notional exposure (he was levered 5x). He had big positions in Chinese tech giants BIDU, TME, VIPS; broadcasting stocks VIAC and DISCA. If the later is true, we might soon see a bounce in many of the oversold tech stocks.

The constant talk of chip shortage is clearly impacting the price action in semis. There were so many major breakouts on Friday – AMAT, UCTT, LRCX, KLAC, KLIC, etc.

The lack of housing supply and the expectations of a big infrastructure bill is bidding homebuilders and industrial metals. So much strength in steel, aluminum, copper on Friday. The homebuilders ETF closed at new all-time highs.

NEW this week I asked Nikita to update the SPAC market. Seeing Social Leverage operates one and that Nikita is working at Social Leverage both at our fund and the SPAC, who better. Nikita was running a SPAC portfolio previously at a family office. She set up a ‘substack’ and her first letter is titled ‘What Happened To That SPACtacular Rally?’

I will end with some blockchain/token charts I have followed because I own them in a fund and have been reading up on them.

The first is Solana ($sol.x on Stocktwits), now $6 billion:

The next one is Helium ($hnt.x on Stocktwits), now $1 billion:

If you want to dig into more charts and research, coinmarketcap.com is a good place to start.

I have capital with Multicoin Capital since 2017 and they have great content on all things crypto and their investment. Kyle has been a guest on my ‘Panic’ podcast.

Have a great week.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here

Sunday Reads ….WTF Is Bitcoin Anyway and The Excess of Everything

Happy Passover.

Last night we got together outside for a family Seder with Ellen’s side of the family. Last year was my first Zoom seder.

Onwards…

Real Vision has a great piece on Bitcoin for beginners titled ‘WTF Is Bitcoin Anyway‘.

The New York Times piece on COVID, the genome sequencing and Moderna is excellent.

For the last year I have said it would be endless ‘supply’ that was the only thing to slow this recovering market. We are seeing those signs now. John Street Capital has a great piece titled ‘The Excess of Everything‘ worth reading.

Finally, the media has latched on to ‘Bitcoin mining is bad for the environment’. Fred Wilson offers up some other thoughts.

If you like a great curated daily list of market and investing reads my friend Tadas has been doing it for years.

I am off for a ride and round of golf today.

Have a great Sunday.

More On My Crypto Flippening and The Internet Of Value

Happy Saturday….

I think you will really enjoy this Raoul Pal interview with Scott Galloway on all things crypto and what Raoul describes as the ‘internet of value’

I keep going deeper down the rabbit hole with crypto. Luckily for me it is mostly about my job as an investor.

Crypto is my personal ‘fontier’ investing. Space, Robotics, Genetics, Biotech and gaming have never interested me and luckily I can make a living investing without having to understand these frontiers.

I use the term ‘the flippening’ a lot on this blog.

It is a term that I heard first used in a crypto context that refers to the possibility of Ethereum (ETH) overtaking Bitcoin (BTC) as the biggest cryptocurrency.

In 2019 I first used it to predict that mobile brokerage Robinhood would surpass ETrade in valuation. It now has.

Recently, I used it to explain the change in my portfolio as digital assets surpassed stocks.

Now, the flippening is happening in my investing life as I spend more time reading, learning, talking to crypto investors, dabbling in defi (making small personal investments) and talking to founders.

This crypto flippening has taken more than ten years since hearing the the word Bitcoin for the first time from Yoni Assia in 2010 in Tel Aviv.

Investing and learning takes time.

Jason Hirschhorn, CEO of REDEF, Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss Digital Content Creation and Other Media Trends (EP.142)

I was excited about having Jason Hirschhorn on the ‘Panic’ podcast and he did not disappoint. This interview turned into a two part series so lean back for this first part which covers Jason’s long history at MTV, Slingbox, News Corp and MySpace. Jason has some great stories that were fun for me to listen to because I have met a lot of the same people in my short media stint at CBS.

I have not met another person who is so passionate about movies, music and streaming.

In the second interview (live next week), Jason will cover the future of new media and streaming and the explosion of the creator economy.

Looking back from today I believe that YouTube created the first explosion in the creator economy and today it is a bunch of new media platforms combined with decentralization and tokens that will create an even bigger explosion which Jason predicts will be a ‘more equitable’ version of the creator economy.

You can listen to the first interview right here on Spotify or Apple.

For more details on Jason and this interview read on below…

Guest: Jason Hirschhorn

Profile: CEO and Chief Curator at REDEF

Where to Find Him: LinkedIn, Twitter

Fun Fact: Along with REDEF, you can read more of Jason’s thoughts on media, trends, culture, and more over on his personal website: https://jasonhirschhorn.typepad.com/

What’s the Panic About:

As a media geek, I was excited to have media legend Jason Hirschhorn on this episode. Jason has been in ‘new’ media business for a long time, holding previous presidential titles at MTV and MySpace. He’s also sat on some impressive directors and advisory boards, including MGM, Sundance Institute and Pandora. Jason has also probably watched every show across Netflix, Hulu, HBO Max, or any other streaming platform you can think of. So, he’s taken his vast knowledge of the intersection of tech, media and culture to create REDEF – a curated mix of the best and smartest articles, videos, movies and music across a range of fields. Think of Jason and REDEF as like your own personal DJ, mixing the best of all the media out there for an incredibly thoughtful and engaging experience. In this episode, Jason and I go in depth about all things media, the coolest job he’s had, how to fight unfair battles and his take on streaming platforms. He also shares a story about Bono you absolutely don’t want to miss (but you’ll have to wait until the end of the episode to hear it). Enjoy!

The Takeaway:

Whether it’s a content curator like REDEF or round-ups like my Sunday Reads, it’s important that we don’t just passively consume content on the internet. Yes, it can be nice to mindlessly scroll on Twitter, but then what do we truly gain from that? Jason is a great example of how we find that balance between consuming mass quantities of content and still actively engaging with it and thinking critically about it.

Favorite Quote:

“I like to build things, not fix them.”
“I love “David and Goliath” type of fights, especially when David wins.”

Food for Thought and Note To Self:

Build the media mancave that Jason built for himself!

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PS – I am now doing one ‘Panic With Friends’ podcast per week. Thanks for listening and make sure you subscribe over on Spotify or Apple.

The State Of Venture Capital

The venture capital business/industry has changed a lot since I started writing angel checks in 2006.

I was listening to ‘The All-In-Podcast’ on the subject yesterday and the guys really nailed it.

I am biased because their description and analysis jives almost exactly with how I see it and our choices as a firm sticking to seed and expanding to SPACs.

Have a listen.

Always Sardonic

Last week after seeing my sister for the first time in over a year, she sent me an old picture from her wedding:

You can tell by my smile that I had no idea what a prostate was!

I shared it on Twitter and the conversations were very funny.

I miss my hair.

Yesterday I was on a Zoom with two great investors – Nigel Morris and Frank Rothman – and at the end of the conversation Nigel said I was ‘sardonic’.

I told him I was not sure whether that was a compliment or and to hang tight while I searched it.

Wikipedia says – To be sardonic is to be disdainfully or cynically humorous, or scornfully mocking.[1][2] A form of wit or humour, being sardonic often involves expressing an uncomfortable truth in a clever and not necessarily malicious way, often with a degree of skepticism

I can live with being an aging sardonic. Nigel is ok in my book.

Speaking of scornfully mocking and uncomfortable truths …I have an Instagram imposter but I don’t want to report them because they are choosing great pictures of me.

Also – Instagram is now the most complicated product of all the social networks. Sad.

Have a great day.

Sam Jones, Co-Founder of OOOOO, Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss His Radical Social Commerce App and the Business of Live Streaming (EP.140)

I am fascinated by the growth of e-commerce and the new shopping apps across the globe.

I don’t shop online yet but for a few things/brands like Rapha. Ellen and Rachel have boxes coming to the house everyday.

My friend Wayne Lloyd in Vancouver shares a lot of interesting startups with me and we go way back trading stocks and talking fintech. He introduced me to Sam last year working in London and based on his background and passion I wanted to learn more and so we participated in his seed round.

Here is my conversation with Sam on his startup, video and e-commerce …you can listen to it here on Spotify or Apple.

For more details on the conversation, have a read below.

Guest: Sam Jones

Profile: Co-founder and CEO at OOOOO

Where to Find Him: LinkedIn, Twitter

Fun Fact: Sam previously spent 10 years living in Asia working as a headhunter.

What’s the Panic About:

This week’s Panic guest, Sam Jones, called in all the way from Oxford to chat with me. Sam is a good friend, great entrepreneur, and co-founder of the social commerce app “OOOOO.” I am a small personal investor in the company. To put it simply, OOOOO is “Only Fans” meets commerce – enabling live entertainment commerce. Here’s a link to their instagram for a preview of the work they’re doing. While Sam started “OOOOO” only about a year ago, it has seen impressive growth and success. In this episode, Sam digs into e-commerce, OOOOO, his company’s growth and retail share model, China & Pinduoduo, his plans for a documentary, the culture and business of live streaming, and more. Enjoy!

The Takeaway:

As Sam’s company has proven, 2020 was a year for exponential growth in user-generated video content. Sam mentions how sites like Amazon have made shopping and e-commerce a lonely activity. And if the impact of COVID-19 and quarantine has shown us anything, it’s that we crave connection, interaction, and an outlet for our creativity. OOOOO is meeting audiences at that intersection of video viewing, engagement and e-commerce to create a whole new, exciting, and profitable experience.

Favorite Quote:

“Attention is so expensive these days.”
“Our company is creating radical content, live.”

Food for Thought:

The closest thing to the work Sam and OOOOO is doing in the U.S. is companies like Super Great (which is geared more toward beauty) and Pop Shop Live. Sam said he has plans to launch OOOO in other markets – are you hoping OOOO and more companies like it will be available in the U.S.?

PS – I am now doing one ‘Panic With Friends’ podcast per week. Thanks for listening and make sure you subscribe over on Spotify or Apple.

Momentum Monday – All New Is Good News and NFT Mania Enters Public Markets

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

Happy Monday everyone.

As always, Ivanhoff and I toured the markets looking for the momentum and strength. You can watch this weeks episode right here on YouTube and I have embedded it below on the blog:

I start each week on Saturday scrolling through The Stocktwits Top 25 Lists to see what is working and see if anything stands out to me.

Charlie’s 5 chart Friday is also something I quickly check.

If you read this blog, you know I hold a lot of crypto. Morgan Stanley has finally gotten a little religion and sent me a long PDF deck titled:

Crypto is the first asset class in my lifetime that started out at retail and went institutional. That alone continues to fascinate me. I have no plans on reading what Morgan sent, I will stock with the people that got me into crypto in 2013, 2014 , 2015, 2016 etc…

The institutions embracing crypto by pitching it to their ‘Wealth Management’ clients in a ‘special report’ continues to be the biggest investing story of 2021.

As I mention in this week’s show, risk on in NFT’s, crypto and now ‘frontier markets’ as JC points out:

Here is what Ivanhoff has to say about the markets:

The Fed is saying that it doesn’t worry about inflation this year. The market has a different opinion. Long-term rates have been rising, pressuring most tech stocks, SPACs, and recent IPOs which went public at elevated valuations. In the meantime, the NFT and crypto space is flourishing. People are spending crazy money on digital art, farts, virtual houses, tweets, collectibles, you name it. A sign of froth and a side effect of too much money in the system some would say. Or maybe it is just the early innings of a new Internet. Only time will tell. The whole mania has been spilled over public markets. Any stocks related to NFT have gone up 2-5x in the past couple of weeks: TKAT, OCG, ZKIN, JFIN, YVR, HOFV, IMTE, etc. Even FB and ETSY seem to be rising based on it. Quite a few blockchain and crypto-related stocks are still setting up – MSTR, SOS, MARA, RIOT, etc.

Watch the 310 level in the QQQ next week. If it is lost, we will see a considerable number of former momentum leaders breaking down from their bearish flags.

If QQQ somehow manages to retake its 50-day moving average and then clears 325, we are back to a FOMO market. I am already seeing some clean energy stocks tightening up which can be a good foundation for a rally.

Basically, the market is in a consolidation mode. It has been choppy and indecisive lately which has required traders to be nimble.

Have a great week!

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here

Some Sunday Listens

Good morning everyone.

I am back in Phoenix and headed for a long ride in a bit.

I really enjoyed my few days in Miami.

If you are young and mobile, I think the warm weather cities of the USA are the place to be. San Diego, Phoenix, Austin, Dallas, Miami.

With state taxes in Arizona rising to 9 percent, Austin, Dallas and Miami make way more sense for tax reasons.

I am not sure how the cold weather cities, especially those in higher tax states will be able to recruit the best people and attract the best entrepreneurs.

Two great podcasts I enjoyed yesterday were:

Conan O’Brien and Shaquille O’Neal

Barry Ritholtz and Bill Gurley

Have a great Sunday.

A Face To Face 27 Years After a Cold Call

Last night after some Joe’s Stone Crab with my sister Robyn I headed over to see some friends at a family office and wealth management event in South Beach.

It was after eight at a great roof top bar and I was saying hello to a few people I knew when a hand hit me on the shoulder and a man in an english accent said to me:

‘Howard …do you remember me?’

I did.

I was finally meeting Gareth Evans who had cold called me back in 1994 when I was at my first start-up (pre internet) called Pro-Innovative Concepts.

Gareth was a master cold caller for ‘Sands Brothers’ and he tells me he got my name from some 144 shareholder list.

In 1994, I was making my first little bit of money and luckily for both Gareth and I (we both knew nothing), it was a bull market and all the ideas Gareth was pitching did not go to zero.

Of course one did and it was the IPO of Orange Julius (Donald Trumpf). The ticker was $DJT and he would parlay that genius into the presidency.

Gareth has a 21 year old daughter in college and we agreed that my son Max would cold call her asking for a date.

Here we are sharing one of many laughs:

Life is short and the world is small (and we are both vaccinated).

Have a great Friday.