Case Study – Component Stocks…Synaptics (SYNA)

Even though I knew this was coming , I am pissed. The stock is a pile of shit. No word from the company as usual. The analysts and momentum players like me will be left holding the bag. With component stocks, it’s a game of musical chairs – like the rest of Wall Street..just sped up.

I know better, but started buying some back today at the close. I am back at a full position, after selling on the way up , and added some calls.

I don’t think anyone should be trading it as it acts like it is ready to implode and has done this before, but it’s my poison. People on the street are looking at last quarter’s numbers and extraploating it out and saying the stock is cheap . They are wrong.

Component stocks and cyclicals always look cheap at the top. It’s why people get buried in them and why I suspect that this trend may be over soon if not already.

That said, I can’t help but buy a stock in a strong uptrend even after falling a straight 30 percent. This winner for me could become a loser on a preannouncement, but I am a big boy and am taking a calculated risk. My calculated bet here is that the trend reasserts itself (it better really fast) and that management is not about to drop a bomb.

Pray for me :) .


  1. Broker A says:

    What did I tell you?

    Not rubbing it in, trust me.

    All I know, I lost 500k in a few short weeks in this pig, back in 2004.

    There is likely some design loss that has been leaked. That’s what happened to me back then.

    It’s a cancer.

  2. David says:

    I am willing to bet, it will be over $50.00 before next quarter’s earning and I would even say, if the market turns around, we will see $60.00.
    I have a small position of 3000 shares.

  3. David says:

    From Notable Calls,
    Synaptics (NASDAQ:SYNA) : Actionable call alert from Oppenheimer
    Oppenheimer is out on Synaptics (NASDAQ:SYNA) saying the stock has been taking a hit on concerns of market share loss at H-P (HPQ) to a competitor, Alps. Firm’s channel checks indicate that there has not been any change in the procurement patterns for touchpad modules for notebooks (NB) at the Taiwanese ODMs who account for 90% of the NBs made for H-P. Also, both H-P and Acer (2353.TW, NT$57, Not Covered) mid-quarter raised their NB orders to the ODMs, which could provide upside to SYNA’s guidance. Also, handset and MP3 sales appear to be robust in 4Q. With the stock having pulled back 20% they believe it provides a good opportunity to establish positions for another run in 2008. Raising 4Q07 estimates on NB strength. Reiterating Buy and $60 PT, 40% potential upside from here.

    Notablecalls: SYNA has been crushed over the past 3 days. This call will generate a meaningful bounce. Actionable call alert!!

    PS: My gut is telling me SYNA will trade over $45 today and possibly toward $46.

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