The cynicism is at a fever pitch. Sure there is good reason, but wooowwwwoooow! I am guilty myself and when I get this way, I know I am missing opportunity. I am putting a check on that now with the Dow below 7,000 and Jim Rogers telling me to start a farm. Jim…I am a jew! Yes we should let AIG go bankrupt , but that is not going to happen. We need to invest accordingly.
Taking some big steps back are what’s in order now. The trading will drive you insane and although it looks exciting, it will grind all but the best into the ground.
What do we know:
1. Investing rules are now changed FOREVER. Banks are cooked for a very long time and you should follow ‘THE’ hot hand here until he is very wrong. The clock is not broken over in Upside’s shooting gallery. Block out the noise and don’t bet against the trend.
2. Amazon is the best positioned web/technology company in the world. If you must own a technology stock, what’s wrong with just owning it until they are not.
3. “The problems that exist in the world today cannot be solved by the level of thinking that created them.” – That is Albert Einstein people (thanks Don ). This is such a great quote for today’s times. Obama and crew are in a giant rush to fix year’s of decay. That is not going to happen by a longshot. Picking a bottom in THIS environment is a recipe for disaster and truly amateur hour thinking.
4. Financial Leverage is a dirty word. ‘Too Big To Fail’ is/was a MYTH. It will get much worse for big companies. There is massive damage to investing psyche and massive overhead resistance. When a recovery comes, it will not be like the preceding 18 year bull. The leverage memories will deny us the same growth and glee.
5. Though people will argue about the long-term profitability models of social networks (not me), humans will spend a much larger amount of time on the web for the forseeable future.
6. Eventually, we will have to pay our debts.
Knowing what we know, what SHOULD happen:
1. If volatility and fear subside for any lengthy period, the US dollar should get poleaxed. America looks safe in times like this, but we have sold out our future completely, outside of the web, services and certain IP.
2. Europe has no competitive advantage left in anything as the new financial centers from these broken times will be even further decentralized. Trust is gone. Marble halls and wood floors won’t cut it in the next banking recovery. I believe the Euro will end in ruins at this pace. I am investing accordingly. I am keeping my pear shaped body out of Europe as well for a long time to come.
3. If picking a bottom is just plain dumb, you should focus all you energy on a niche that you can exploit or hide out and be quiet until the coast is clear.
4. Social Networking will not just stay strong, but it will accelerate astronomically. People will be using the social webs for everything and spending more time on the internets. Guaranteed. This is where I have a good majority of my chips.
5. America won’t lead as they once have. We are resilient and will thrive, but it will be different.
6. If we have to eventually pay our debts, interest rates should start creeping higher if not explode.
What Could Happen (What I am doing):
I think the best wager is chaos, both to the upside and downside. If there is chaos, I want cash and I want some hard assets and I want flexibility in my investing. That’s how I have been investing for over a year. I am keeping my size small for the most part. I don’t plan on getting rich from these stock markets.
I have a lot of money spread in early stage web businesses. I am wagering on talent. I specifically like the niche social web and it’s implications for transaction businesses. I also will continue to increase my investments in financial technology (FinTech).
I am wary of much higher interest rates so I will continue to live downsized and as debt free as possible. I will choose rent and flexibility over purchase.
I like oil because in all the chaos, i doubt much will get done in alternative energy. I agree with Chris that LOW oil prices are a sleeping threat . I like the risk/reward of being in oil.
I own Amazon and will stay with it until it is broken but I doubt even this bear can break it.