Opinion won’t make you money. At best, opinions can be entertaining. At worst, they will cause anxiety, concern and cost you money.
I decided not too long ago to simplify my investing strategy. I trust myself and prices. I stick to a money management plan. The prices don’t lie.
Trend following is really about prices in the end. I don’t get mad at stocks anymore. It’s not their fault they do what they do.
When CROX hit an all-time high not to long ago, I wrote one of my favorite posts. I got long on a simple signal – an all-time high. I followed it with another post as CROX kept on chugging. Yesterday, it hit $40. I have no idea where it will be tomorrow. Who cares?
I am not smart or stupid. With CROX, “The Price just HAPPENS to be Right” (a little Bob Barker retirement love), for now :) .
In August, Forbes wrote an article that panned the Company. The stock was at $24. They told their readers to dump the stock. The author made no position disclosure. She did make a nice case for hating the stock and expecting the bottom to drop out. That only cost investor’s that followed Forbe’s opinion 65 plus percent in two months. Nice.
At $28, Tim Beyers of the Motley Fool had a headline that said SHORT CROX. His awesome OPINION followed. He had no position. Sweet.
Smarter people than me have said : “Opinions are like assholes…”
I have many opinions, but I follow the trend. CROX is trending nicely. The business is trending unbelievably well. That is not an opinion – look at the numbers. The catalyst in MY mind going forward is private label. It is not a decision that I base my purchase on, but something that I feel. It is irrelevant to my position once it is in place.
The CROX post above made me think about product “tipping points” and Web 2.0. As I researched my original CROX post, I found hundreds of Flickr photos that CROX owners took of their shoes. Why?
I think we are on to something. It’s about public consciousness. If it is important enough, important and powerful trends should show themselves and persist in Web 2.0 social sites like Flickr and YouTube.
The widget is not perfect – YET. That would not be any fun. I FEEL like we are on to something and it is fun to experiment and get started.
Disclosure – Long CROX and own “knockoffs” :) .
PS – I will state my opinon often about stocks, The Phoenix Sun’s, other bloggers and some random stuff. Do yourself a favor if you read them – ignore them.
PSS – working on an ABOUT section for all my posts over at Wallstrip.
He’s an ass. Don’t believe me…watch the show :) .