Fred thinks it may be time for Greed . As Fred says:
Greed is good when fear rules the roost and fear is good when greed rules the roost. Now is the time for greed.
I guess it depends on the depth of your pockets and your pain threshold. I agree that buying when there is fear is good, but if I am going to dip my toe in distressed and fearful times, I want to own assets whose value can be at least ballparked.
The big ‘guess’ these days in old media revolves around the question…’when will growth return and the recession/depression end’?
As usual, it’s the wrong question, a question that can’t be answered with any certainty.
I believe you use bad times to do deals at YOUR prices. In good times, good deals cost more so what’s the damn difference. I have spent mucho time in New York the last few months and I can’t believe how much opportunity there is here, if you are looking in the right place. I joke all the time, but I am really serious about the fact that I am investing all the time.
My friend James Robinson of RRE Ventures had this post up today about the FIVE stages of Grief and Tragedy. I am not sure about his timeline, but assuming it is even close to being correct, the DEALS will be insane by the 4th quarter. I tend to agree about the timing, but have an open mind and expect the worst.
We are finally ending the DENIAL stage. By the ned of this month, most people will finally open there year end brokerage statements. They will go from from DENIAL to ANGER. I can’t see the markets rallying too hard in the ANGER stage of this recession, but will keep an open mind.
The BARGAINING stage is to follow and it should be interesting.
This bear market likely has a way to go, so be patient still. If you must guess, keep positions small and your opinions to a minimum.