I finally tested ‘negative’ for COVID yesterday. I will be going home today.
Yesterday I finally had a few hours to enjoy the beach which was great. I went out on the water and caught a few fish as well.
I have had way too much ‘screen’ time (laptop) this week and have been following the markets way too closely.
I have gotten so much better over the years at doing nothing and I did nothing this week but watching prices bleed is of course stressful no matter how conservative you have been.
We are in the middle of a slow panic in technology stocks. I can’t tell if the panic accelerates and spreads. It sure feels like it will.
In March 2020, it felt more obvious to me that people should be buying stocks and I started my ‘Panic With Friends’ podcast. I thought the panic would last a month and I would wind the podcast down. The panic did last a month but I kept doing the podcast.
Over the last year people would ask me what my podcast title meant and I would explain the origin story.
Well…here we are again.
This time though, inflation continues out of control, oil is breaking out above $110, rates are rising and even after the huge technology slide, the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) is well above March 2020 prices. I don’t have the same conviction that I had in March 2020 and so I have not been buying much of anything.
For all the talk about technology over the last few years, the energy ETF ($XLE) has now outperformed the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ):
If I was abetting man, and I am not, the next wave of technology winners will be those making sure energy (at least fossil fuels) does not continue to outperform. This is the hard venture bet and looking at the prices of energy, a timely and important one. It’s obvious we can’t count on the government.
I’m not arguing that healthcare, fintech, web 3, enterprise, gaming and consumer software will not continue to be great sectors for growth, only that the market is speaking pretty loudly right now and I am hoping great investors are founders are going to come seek the rewards.
In the meantime, my old mantra of $QQQ over $SPY is on the shelf until further notice.
This bear market is mean.