Facebook, Facebook, Facebook

Before I get started on Facebook, If YOU could buy just one stock now that Facebook has filed to go public, which would it be? (please answer in the comments)

Facebook $FB (should be $FBOOK) is the new Location Location Location.

Stocks generally do well when I give them this triple title…I did so for $LULU a while back. It is fun to see it all come together as both companies hit all time highs and LULU become the ‘Facebook of ladies tooshies’.

I have been mostly wrong about Facebook the stock. It is hard to get a Company right when you don’t use their product on a steady basis. Directionally I have never been bearish, so I guess I should have been buying. Here is one example of a post I did in 2009 titled ‘Twitter…What Would You Pay’. In 2007, I said ‘Hurry up and Get Public‘. Also from 2007, I thought a consumer brand like Coke or American Express should have bought Facebook and now Procter and Gamble is laying off 1600 employees as Facebook goes public.

As usual, most of us are wrong and a few make all the money.

Of course yesterday I got a call from a reporter from the Los Angeles Times yesterday asking for all my thoughts on Facebook. Is it a buy or a sell?

I have no opinion on Facebook itself, but it will help drive capital and profits all over the place in many amazingly good ways and create havoc for certain industries as well. Facebook the stock is just one piece of the giant puzzle of the market. For example, if you work in TV and Radio sales, your job is getting tougher. The IPO just put the toughness at all time highs. But, if you are a GREAT TV ad salesmen, your job got easier and LinkedIn will have your phone buzzing with recruitment offers.

It’s about watching the money flow and today is no different than yesterday in the business of managing money.

As per the Facebook IPO, I liked the following pieces:

Andy Kessler – ‘The Button that Made Facebook Billions

The Globe and Mail – ‘Why Facebook May not Be a Growth Story‘ (begs the question…define growth).

Dara Albright – ‘Where is Facebook’s Audacious S1’

Dan Ramsden – He is tearing it up with great analysis in an easy to digest way – ‘A Way to Look at Network Value


  1. I’m a buyer, and won’t haggle much with valuation…  The control issues don’t bother me.  I prefer a 27 year-old CEO to the 60+ CEOs who don’t have a clue.  The growth issue doesn’t bother me, especially when a cool $1 billion flows to the net income line.  Truly sick margins, and arguably the monetization is merely at an inflection point.  I’m sure traders, momentum, bears, etc. will have fun buying, shorting, selling, and so on.  I’m a buyer and will check in on it from time to time.

  2. Dehtrader says:

    To me it seems Facebook should somehow be a four letter ticker. FABO or FBOK or FCBK, Keep up the good work!

  3. Emini all the time says:

    Okay I only use Facebook for one reason…..The most talented programmer in the world invited me…..he happens to work for the greatest social media company in the world.      I was so upset when I got the invite….I NEVER wanted a FB account…..EVER.     I knew it would be trouble for me  and every friend in the world that I dumped and all my x girl friends friends would FIND me and offer NOTHING but BS links to things that I really dislike.    My fears came true and it has been a constant fight with people that I blocked out of my life.   

    Now LINKED IN is awesome I get jobs from it.    I find out what my competitors are doing and you know I can even tell 1-2 months in advance who is getting laid off from there company.    Very helpful info for me.

    NOW Stocktwits has proven even more helpful.     I have learned about Macro economics, I have developed a trading technique that has a very very high win rate + ya know making money trading consistently makes me very happy.

    I am thinking about closing my FB account and start using my real name on Stocktwits because I am finally PROUD of what I have accomplished.   Who cares about FB I want to buy into the Stocktwits IPO !

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  6. Now lets be clear here Facebook is going public very soon but is it really going to be  such a great bargain when everybody’s uncles uncles is dying to get into the shares. Its so very easy to get caught up in the frency and euphoria of a public offering like facebook. If you must buy the stock do so but keep in mind that you could very well be buying at the top or very close to it.

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