Happy father’s day today to all my dad friends.
My kids are out of the house so most of my opportunity to be a great father is gone. I had my time. Based on how they treat me, Ellen, each other and other people I think we did great. They seem happy with their paths so far and grateful for their opportunities.
Rachel and Max send me these lovely texts and photos all the time (any text not asking for a VENMO is lovely) sharing their days and it makes me feel good.
Next up is being a grandfather one day. Later would be better than sooner, but I am ready. I know I will be a fantastic grandfather. I’m excited to eat popcorn and candy and watch Jaws, The Godfather Raiders of the Lost Ark and Jurassic Park with the kiddies.
Hopefully my kids will still have a nest egg…and at the pace the markets are falling, they may be working in a coal mine.
Coal has become a safe haven growth sector in 2022. To get my kids prepared I have been sending them a list of coal stocks and YouTube mining videos.
The S&P has now been down 10 of the 11 weeks. The last time that happened was in 1970. I was 5 years old. Once I heard this stat I can forgive my dad for being pissed that whole year. I thought it was because I scratched his Cadillac with a hockey stick.
The year 2022 has been an outlier bad year and my best guess is it stays that way or gets worse before better. This chart will give you some coxtext:
The wealth destruction has been epic. Even though I have had a high cash allocation, my 30-40 percent allocation to mostly tech stocks has me in my largest stock portfolio drawdown ever. That’s definitely bad on my risk management but I have never seen this many great brands and profitable companies drop this far this fast together.
One more chart to highlight the carnage in 2022 – the wealth destruction (real estate has likely been a huge buffer so far) :
Finally…the fear, which is approaching pandemic highs:
I was less worried during the COVID panic than I am this Father’s day. That and a nickel is worth a nickel, but that COVID panic felt hysterical. This fear is not hysterical. This is real financial pain and worry and anger. The bond market is going to freak people out. The crypto market will continue to be the crypto market of boom bust but great investors will shift to the stock market from crypto and private markets because of the opportunities are much better relative to liquidity and trust. A ‘known’ rigged market is easier to manage :) .
Just some thoughts…
I am off for a ride, a stretch and an afternoon of naps and US Open golf on the couch.