I am getting asked a lot about the coming ‘recession’.
Here is the definition from Wikipedia:
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock or the bursting of an economic bubble. In the United States, it is defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales”
I liked this chart from Arun Chopra to get my answer started:
If we are on the verge of recession, it will be the most talked about and predicted one of all-time.
I worry for American kids with high student debt because of the ‘gig economy’ they are heading into.
When this recession comes they will feel it more than anyone.
I think of recessions like inflation. There are groups of people battling their own recessions all the time much like certain industries are battling inflation and deflation all the time.
In this mobile era of machines and low interest rates, I doubt recessions look like the past and I doubt it gets as easily predicted as the chart above.