Is Solar Back? Some Signs of leadership

I am very light stocks right now as you know. My 2008 stock predictions and ‘Fab 6’ have been mostly brutalized . Some good trading and general light allocation to stocks has kept me in the game. I was stopped out of Apple and Synaptics, but am back long some Apple. I also own, Chipotles, IBKR, Nuance, Gold, SLW and PAAs, OIH, PHO and some solar – FSLR, JASO, WFR and CSIQ. One of my 2008 predictions (the only one half right) was for a 50 plus percent wipeout in solar before the ramp continued. The 50 plus percent declines happened so maybe the ramp starts today.

I am barely watching the market and was emailed the First Solar sweetness from a reader the stock was up almost $60 to $230 (still $50 below all-time highs of a month ago). Too bad I sold the piece I was trading back at $195 (twittered that). I still own some from way back but am not excited enough yet to add any names.

If the little ones and First Solar can attack new highs I would truly be impressed and will likely add names.

I still think there is no reason to be farting around with stocks until we get a lot more leadership. I am farting around and have been mostly lucky on the trading side so far.

Difficult markets are where most investors get in and get screwed. Most of the time the market does nothing and you only need a few months a year of great leadership to make a killing. We just had three years straight and so you can’t be greedy. Don’t confuse inactivity though with bearishness. I am seeing some puked up awesome deals in local real estate and some new stock leadership in Biotech and Orthapedic stocks.

Stocks and private investment are just so different. In both, all I care about is price, but in stocks I don’t mind paying high prices and in privates I can’t stand paying high prices (I won’t).


  1. johnjaygebhardt says:

    i am long the solars and have atyed long the solars through all the market upheaval. my argument is that global warming wont go away with a slowing or crashing economy. the investmets in solar and other alternatives is require. i dont want to miss the enormous returns coming in this space in the next 4 years. put some away and trade a few.

  2. greenskeptic says:

    You’re so right to be selective at this point. FSLR is clearly the best in class and some others will follow — as they did yesterday — but we need to proceed with caution.

    Solar is definitely a LONG term play and will likely have more ups and downs. But the need for disruptive energy technology is not going away any time soon.

    Applied Materials (AMAT) is definitely worth watching in the solar space. A sleeper?

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