All the smart people are bearish. The group includes Tony Robbins (gynormous melon…literally) and Mark Cuban (not sure if I am being sarcastic)
The only reason I have to be bearish is that I am bullish…
Actually that’s not true. Indian penny stocks are flying ( see $SIFY and $REDF ), Chinese stocks are rocking and solar is back. Once the biotech index breaks out it will be confusion city for the bulls and bears.
It is safe to be bearish. The bears are never wrong. The bears are fantastic at archive search.
There is some crazy price momentum in leading stocks, but to focus on them is silly. Momentum is very difficult to time and tame. I believe it is best to embrace momentum and have an exit plan or just avoid.
After price, the only thing that matters to me are smart people who have made money at turns before. Two that I continue to trust are my pals The Fly and Fred Wilson. The Fly is calling this moment ‘Bubbleicious’ and Fred Wilson is blogging about Contrarian Investing. Reading them and trusting them as I do, I make a mental note to self…don’t get giddy.
If you want to follow price like me, watch Joe Fahmy’s show last night on Stocktwits.tv .
I am not an asset allocation junkie, just an idea guy and opportunist. I don’t think grandiose bullish or bearish calls are necessary in the business of making real money.