It's Been Too Easy for Apple…BUT you should hope for the big Selloff

This is not a negative piece on Apple, but a reminder about the end value of Apple as a stock. I could care less about the nerds and the Apple fanboys and Apple haters.

The stores rock and in the end, they could sell shit in a box and the wave will continue (Actually they started that process with Apple TV). Talk to me at 800 stores and we may be closer to a sell.

BUT , they have had it too easy. I mean Vista, Dell, Gateway, Sony (laughable stores using Vista on all the machines)….Apple is acting way arrogant and complacent. The nerds and VC’s of the world were switching and beginning to cave to the Apple lovefest. The iPhone, while on it’s way to greatness, is disgusting with it’s AT&T partnership and laughable web service.

As I mentioned on Friday, a nightmare is brewing with smart, trusting, early adpoters. Techmeme is aglow with the problems . As a tech retard, I am scared to plug in my iPhone. I love going to the Apple stores, but don’t want to go over this. Maybe it’s just a blip, but if it isn’t, Nokia, RIMM and others will have an answer. RIMM already has an answer. I can never imagine a full switch. If they add some smart software for music and a partnership with Amazon or even get bought by Microsoft, the phone war may go easily to RIMM. The market is already calling it a two horse race with RIMM and Apple.

I am hoping for a 30-40 percent selloff already. It’s overdue. Maybe Job’s would like one so he can backdate some more options.

When that selloff comes again, remember the mantra …800 stores, the best retailer ever.

In the meantime, this continues to be the best of times for RIMM, the only absolute freaking purebread in the phone/email handheld business. Congrats to them.

Disclosure- Long Apple and Amazon…should be long Nokia and RIMM


  1. DaveD says:

    Well, despite the logic to your rant, the case you make for a 30%-40% selloff is woefully lacking.

    Let’s talk specific numbers:

    (1) Stock price. With Friday’s close of ~153, you’re saying you think the stock will dip to the 93-108 range. Gotcha. Based on what fundamentals?

    (2) Certainly not Mac sales. Most reports have them reporting yet another record high quarter next month – 2 million Macs sold.

    Again, I can agree with the logic of your rant. But iPhone sales from a single country, diluted over 24 months, aren’t a major driver of stock price.

    I expect the price to move up some over the next 6 months. Not to 200 like some so-called analysts have for a target, but more like 165 by MWSF.

    When you take your emotions out of the equation – and you ARE speaking emotionally – you should be concerned about the company and stock price.

    Concerned about adding to your position next February.

  2. Don says:

    “This is not a negative piece on Apple, but a reminder about the end value of Apple as a stock.”

    Uh, sure: “shit in a box…Apple TV… Apple is acting way arrogant and complacent… The iPhone…is disgusting with it’s AT&T partnership and laughable web service… I am hoping for a 30-40 percent selloff”

    “Not negative?” If you say so. One thing is sure though: This article is not credible either, Howard. Good luck next time.

  3. Thomas says:

    Much of what you write is incoherent. Nonetheless, here are a couple of things you seem to not understand.

    1) The iPhone does not directly compete with RIMM devices. Yes, a Blackberry user might switch to an iPhone, but the iPhone is targeted primarily toward a broader consumer market bringing a carefully selected but limited handful of elegantly implemented smartphone features to those who, for the most part, would not have even considered buying a smartphone. Blackberrys do not appeal to this market for the most part. RIMM will do fine for Exchange/business users but the consumer market is vastly larger and iPhone will eventually outsell Blackberrys by a huge margin.

    2) Nokia and others will also do fine but they won’t ever be able to create the iPhone-like experience any more than others were able to recreate the iPod/iTunes/iTunes Store experience. Not only will patents and expertise hold Nokia back, but also the lack of controlling all elements of the experience. For instance, one overlooked aspect of the iPhone platform is that it was not created as a stand-alone product but as an extension of the existing Apple ecosystem, i.e. the iPhone adds a couple of heads to the afore mentioned triple headed dragon, thus creating a new beast: iPod/iTunes/iTunes Store/iPhone/OS X/and More: iLife,iMac and even AppleTV. This integration adds great value to the iPhone and cannot be reproduced by the likes of Nokia. In addition, Nokia, if they do succeed in creating a handset (sans the Apple multi-headed dragon) they will likely find that the puck has move when they get there. This is what happened to potential iPod competitors.

    3) Macintosh has a huge potential market that is just beginning to catch fire.

    All-in-all, you will kick yourself if you jump the aapl ship to invest in Nokia or RIMM…at least for the next 5 or more years.

Comments are closed.