Lewis Johnson of Capital Wealth Advisors on the Current Deglobalization Cycle and the Importance of Valuation and Risk Management

  • Introduction (00:40)
  • 2020 Take – Value & Growth (04:17)
  • Welcome Lewis (07:00)
  • Cycles have a logic of their own (08:19)
  • Commodities & Value back in favor (10:04)
  • A Deglobalization Cycle underway (12:11)
  • A chain of Deglobalization events (13:22)
  • Positioning and asset allocation (16:47)
  • The nature of the cycle (17:50)
  • Taking a defensive stance (18:07)
  • Real Estate bubble in China (18:29)
  • De-risking early (20:12)
  • Short squeeze in Commodities (20:44)
  • The Fed can’t print corn (21:23)
  • European energy supply crisis (21:46)
  • Avoiding last cycles winners (22:41)
  • Defensive/Offensive investing (25:16)
  • Tech under a deglobalization mindset (26:13)
  • Valuation is the first lens (26:48)
  • Reconstructing the supply chain (27:25)
  • Defense spending and stocks (27:50)
  • Emerging markets in crisis (31:27)
  • Living in Florida (33:33)
  • Market volatility (35:47)
  • Risk management first (36:19)
  • Fundamentals, supply, demand, valuation matters (37:20)
  • Avoiding black swans (37:43)
  • 60% of the world’s debt is in dollars (39:02)
  • Wrapping up (41:11)
  • Closing thoughts (41:54)

Related Episode:

Co-Founder and President of Fundamental Global Lewis Johnson Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss the Business of Investing – from Asset Management to the Nature of Cycles (EP.120)