No many how many tools we give traders and investors, most look backward or at what is happening now.
I have always wanted to know what would happen tomorrow or next month. Everyone ‘says’ they are looking forward, but they are watching the stocks and industries that are harder to predict. Stocks with too many eyes on them.
The world is fascinated with $FB and $GRPN and $ZNGA the past six months. Everyone is mad. The standard pitch…the bankers screwed us, Zuckerberg should not wear a hoodie and social games are dumb.
The best investors I know have been following price and the industries that price leaders have appeared. This week they were rewarded after a lot of chop.
Take a good look at this week’s Stocktwits 50. Software, Toys, Web, Banks, Medical, Biotech, Food, retail….lot’s of interesting growth stories.
I personally have been chopped around this summer. I look back at my stream and have made good progress considering the ‘tape’ but have been chopped around with entries around $EBAY, $NKE, $AAPL and $GOOG $INTU $MANH $TIBX. My big winners have been $LPSN $ARBA and $DDD but I punted $EBAY too early. I am very light stocks heading into August but I have my portfolio intact and cash to put to work and a very strong list of leaders that most have never heard of. Most are not following the leaders on this list. They are transfixed on last year’s and last decades leaders.
We have been undergoing a big rotation the last 6-8 months since I began my series of ‘What a Market Top Looks Like.’
The market should have been crushed last week. Earnings implosions were everywhere from the $AAPL overhype (I got it wrong myself) the social misses and the strong US Dollar killing the restaurants. But the market rallied. That is more important than the news. The market is looking forward.
If it’s looking forward, take a look at our list.
I own $INTU and $NKE and that are not on the Stocktwits 50 and also the following names from the list:
$LF (Leapfrog), $MANH $LPSN $LNKD $AZPN $VRSN $CSOD $DDD (smidge) and $CYBX. Most of these names I have owned for months only LeapFrog the last month as I think about the reimagining of the toy business. Hasbro and Mattel doing well themselves.
By checking the Stocktwits 50 every week my goal is to make sure I own the right stocks,…owning the right amount is much harder. Overall I am just 20-30 percent long right now and will need to up that quickly if the tape keeps shrugging off the old guard and crappy macro news. But, I know where to shop.
Go to work.
PS – Back home Monday and hopefully up in a new studio making ‘Momentum Monday’s once again.