Momentum Monday…How Did We Miss The Crash? …And PATIENCE

It’s Monday and that means ‘Momentum Monday’.

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Here is this weeks episode. Ivanhoff and I tour the markets looking for signs of a bottom and I give some more examples of stocks as Venture Capital.

I was looking back to my posts in February wondering how I did not see the crash coming.

On February 10th, I posted this chart of airline traffic out of China that in hindsight was the best tip that the virus could/would wreak havoc on the US economy.

As bad as we all were at getting out of stocks at the top, we won’t time getting 100 percent invested at the bottom.

The charts that are mesmerizing me now include Simon Properties Group the high end mall REIT and landlord to your favorite brands and move theatres:

Shake Shack (from all-time high to all-time low in less than a year)…

The Nasdaq 100 has only given back the gains of the last year…not so for the small cap stocks…

I feel worst for people in small cap and value stocks. This chart from JC took the wind out of me because you can feel the pain for everything small (this is just public small caps versus the S&P)

Of course we will get bounces but it will be a long climb back to relevancy for so many small cap stocks.

The banks are being forced to be friendly to the people in 2020 which is not good for the banks as a business or their stock. YOu can see the low relative low to the S&P and one scary chart is Silicon Valley Bank:

My friend JC points out the weakest of the weak sectors and is worried that ANY bounce will be sold here.

A big question now is how much supply chain and revenue disruption is priced in. think we will learn much more this week as we get more data about COVID out of Italy and New York.

Patience is key. The bulls are giving up which is one bullish sign worth watching.