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I will get right to this weeks episode of Momentum Monday which covers a lot of ground. You can watch/listen right here.
Breaking it down further…
By late last week fear was creeping back into the market. As tends to happen when fear spikes…we rallied.
‘Fashology’ stocks continues to lead. If I did not have full positions in Nike, LULU and Apple I would be adding more on dips.
As for the overall trend of the market as well…all things considered in the political and headline world, the market acts very well.
Apple and the semiconductor stocks act like a China deal is imminent. That does not mean the breakouts continue, but it does mean that these stocks want to go higher on any sign of all clear because their businesses are strong. Great investor Andy Kessler says you do not need to get the address right when the markets turn in your favor, just the zip code. The zip code seems to be semiconductors, Apple, select retailers and even select biotech if a China deal is struck.
Seasonally the markets have passed their weakest points, but research from LPL Financial (Ryan Detrick specifically) ran the numbers dating back to 1950 that shows markets tend to trend higher after Thanksgiving in the third year of an election cycle.
One thing I have noticed in the private markets is the sentiment shift to ‘all unicorns are bad and overvalued‘. I dive in deeper in the video, but there are many ‘smart’ people making sweeping negative generalizations about the ‘bubble’ in venture capital markets and though there is a lot of truth to the stories, the prices have quickly reset and the game will continue.
I can be patient as I wait for big stock market trends to develop. They always do after long periods of chop (18 months right now in the S&P).