Multiple Compression…What Next?

For a long long long long time we have been in a multiple expansion world.

Combined with all the money printing and the market cap weighting of the popular indexes, the big companies got all the capital inflows from investors.

The big got bigger.

The web 2 ‘centralized’ era gave us tech planets like Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla – all trillion dollar companies. Even Netflix recently realized they need to think about being a planet and began a move into gaming, but not quick enough as they have been cut to $200 billion. Bill Ackman had to run on TV and cry to create buyers and a bottom (I kid Bill).

As I watched the supply pile into the market last year with IPO’s and SPAC’s, I worried and speculated on the blog that the supply would be the ultimate killer of this long boom.

Now the FED is battling inflation and hinting they will pull that supply back at the same time as wounded ‘newbie’ investors see their beloved stocks and crypto crumble.

Goldman can’t/won’t decide if there will be 4, 5 or 10 rate hikes until they get all their own bets down (yes the market is rigged).

As for the endless demand from new investors onboarded into this brave new trading and investing world by digital COVID tailwinds…they seem worn out. It is not enough they are needed to buy their parents bad stocks and bonds, all weekend long they get hammered with Sports Betting apps and the promises of 30 and 56 to 1 parlays as well as their favorite athletes pitching crypto trading and investing apps.

This a LOT for markets to digest on the macro and the micro, the demand side and the supply side.

I know I am tired of tryin to handicap all these factors and this correction/bear market just may be beginning.

Just some thoughts as I too talk with people all day about investing in the private and public markets.