I am terribly confused, but based on all the news, politics and price action, I would be a liar if I could tell you I knew what was coming next.
When confused like this, I sell stocks and get light. I did nail the rally with my beach call from the Bahamas a few weeks back, but now I am a net seller every day.
My good friend Andy had a great post on dealing with confusion:
Despite this tomfoolery, it is 100% clear that no one knows what anything is presently worth. On one hand, it seems that the economy is in a great depression, due to the large unemployment numbers and other data dumps coming out weekly. On the other, people are still in line at starbucks waiting for 6 dollar, 8 syllable drinks, with amex in hand.
Personally, I don’t think the government will do very well at solving our problems. Something about the past 50 years of failed attempts that makes me think that.
I think the real economy will need to flush out a lot of weak hands before we can really start growing again.
But….I’ve never seen 5 years worth of tax revenues tossed at a problem before. At this point, it seems that the government has gone “all-in”, and is hoping for a queen or a 9…on the turn or the river.
So, to sum it all up….after a nice run of trading, I’m starting to get the feeling that I’m losing my edge here. My disdain for the interventionist policies of the Federal Government may be clouding my judgement, and keeping me from understanding that the Dow can go to 15,000 in a horrible economy, via the hands of a nonstop printing press.
In conclusion, if the market continues reacting positively to the Obama administration opening its mouth, I will realize that I am finally out of touch with the market. At that point, I will move to cash until either myself or the market has sucessfully detoxed.
In any event, I see no reason to be chasing stocks higher here…especially those with absolutely unpricable balance sheets. Mind your sectors.
I don’t trust ‘V’ bottoms and you will hear that a lot amongst good traders on Stocktwits. They are EASY to make happen and Obama is proving it weekly with his Sunday night tactics. It’s weak, dumb, completely goesagainst the idea of stock markets and disclosure and not good long-term for the markets.
The market is all about OPPORTUNITY and if you missed this mega rally, there is no rush to play catch-up.
If you love to trade and are nimble, this market is definitely for you. There are just hundreds of good traders sharing short-term ideas on Stocktwits.
If you love to watch and plunge when the odds are in your favor, like I do, than you should be licking your chops because this V bottom won’t hold. You have TIME to create a plan.
All I am doing now is watching to see if the list of all-time highs grows. Most hate my strategy, because it’s NOT hard work. They like to devour every blog post and every economic morsel as if they will find that edge. God bless them.
I got my first email list in 5 months from Eric Crittenden who runs the Blackstar Fund (I have an allocation) that has been in cash since last fall’s meltdown. Although the list is thin, I am excited to just get that e-mail which tells me something about the price action of the last few weeks. Not every stock, business and industry is on their death bed (just most :) )
Here is the strength:
ASIA, LINC, TNDM, NFLX, DNBK, GMCR, MNRO, PEGA, VR, BLGEA, EEI, QSII, ESSA, LANC, AZO, APSG, OPTR, CSBK
I only own NETFLIX so I have a little work to do.
The rest of the investing world is trying to kiss some frogs and catch a bottom in the financials off a government plan. I thank them for staying out of my side of the pool.
PS – For those that want a recap of what the government SHOULD be doing – read Roger’s blog
PSS – For those that want to get all hyped up about stuff they can’t control, read The Rolling Stones piece .