I cringe at the word ‘crash’. It’s worse than the word ‘bubble’.
Henry Blodget is the man at creating discussion. He got me going with yet another ‘crash’ titled post on Alley Insider. On the one hand it’s fine with me, page views and attention equals revenue and as an investor in Alley Insider I win. On the other hand, it gets me into a media argument I can’t win. I argue against these type of posts each time they do them.
This time Henry says:
@howardlindzon And if the market crashes, 99% of investors will say, "No one warned me!!!"
— Henry Blodget (@hblodget) December 24, 2013
Some good data, but that and a sock will get you a sock. Markets turn when they turn. There is always time to get in front of huge down market moves. Individual stocks…not so much.
Stocks crash every single day.
They crash to the upside as well as the downside. If you have been short the S&P or Nasdaq the last year, you have witnessed a crash.
Individual stocks are incredibly risky. That is the only warning people are entitled too. You are buying the worst paper a company has to offer. You are subject to insane mood swings of the general market dragging down the most profitable and fast growing company the day after you bought it. You are subject to bullshit from the CEO and CFO…and often times downright fraud. If you still want to invest in stocks…go for it.
I predict this…the 2014 stock market will be epic. It will humiliate the unprepared and the over emotional as always. It will reward those that manage risk the best, not always in the short-run.
PS – The S&P will close at exactly 1789.45 in 2014. I guarantee it. Maybe.