I am going to try something new on the blog…a regular ‘Sunday Sentiment’ post.
I am fascinated by the moods of the markets and the fact that narratives and storytelling have driven the fundamentals to the background.
Because I am more excited and fascinated than ever to be a full time investor in private and public markets I think having a Sunday sentiment post will help me improve my long term returns.
I write this blog for my own personal selfish needs and to hopefully grow, but do appreciate everyone reading and sending their comments so please feel free to chime in on this idea and share some ideas on sentiment, who to read, follow and how to think about it.
This week a few charts and data points stand out but long story short make
I think JC nailed something in his post ‘Stealth Correction‘. Small Caps, SPAC’s, IPO’s, Alts, and lates stage monster rounds are getting money flows while $10 plus trillion in the FAANG and friends group of 10 stocks goes nowhere.
There is a new narrative developing and I am trying to piece it together, but for now, it seems like a possible change in trend towards smaller caps over mega caps and decentralized over centralized.
One of my favorite ‘feelings’ about Trump being out of the Oval Office is that the overall tensions in markets will drop. Trump loved to move the markets using Twitter.
One thing that will not go away with Trump gone is that social media influencers (while not as likely to be able to move markets) will be able to move stocks.
The king of that for now is Elon Musk. Brian captured this perfectly with this tweet:
My friend Jim O’Shaughnessy, a smart man and a quant, says Brian’s tweet perfectly captures the zeitgeist of our times. I agree with Jim and would add that the markets going forward will be a great platform for both the quants and the artists. The unbundling of the indexes as new investors pick stocks, build their own portfolios because of fractionalization and the repleneshing of the markets with thousands of new public companies over the next 3-5 years is a trend I am positioned for.
Of course, while this is happening, the pockets of froth and exuberance (Reddit had to change their rules as penny stock peddlers have been piling in) that we see right now as the put/call ratio flashes warning signs would indicate that a correction might be at hand.
Finally, one thing I have noticed about this recent surge in crypto is that weekends on Stocktwits have become dominated by crypto discussion. In 2017 that never happened. This boom haas a different feel.
Have a great Sunday.