Like I said yesterday, if you missed the market moves of the last few days or last few months, NOW is not the time to play catch up.
You know that the market is the main topic of conversation when Bill Maher takes time off from ripping the Bush Administration on Iraq to discuss the financial markets.
A financial nuclear bomb has been detonated on Wall Street and a whole generation of investors will now have to deal with ‘NEW RULES’ being implemented. What was the financial shenanigans of a few thousand banking executives (uncovered by the shortsellers now hated by our leaders) is now an illegal discipline for the forseeable future.
I will have to adapt just like everyone else, but my initial feeling is ‘FUCK IT’, the market just put me out of business for a while. Our leaders have spent the last few months printing money, and catering to the thieves in the financial industry, while punishing the group of investors whose job it is to shed early light on areas of financial crimes. It’s sickening, but I am not getting into that conversation or mess. It’s good for traffic, but bad for my bottom line and YOURS.
The best strategy to come out of this mess will be Global Macro Funds, funds with deep pools making concentrated bets in sectors and countries. They will be funds focused on a longer term horizon with bigger pools of capital. They embrace the volatility because of their connections, patience and deep knowledge of their sectors. The displaced talent from the industry will gravitate to these funds first. It is their best opportunity to be paid for their experience. I am digging through some of the worst performing funds of the last few years in the Global Macro sector and with the help of some of my friends in the industry plan to find a few and make some investments.
At the other end will be the nimble, the creative and the opportunistic. Those willing to change the industry through hard work and the profiting from niche markets afforded to them in the new financial landscape. This is where I will focus my energies and am already writing a few business plans. I now my strengths and weaknesses. I am not a ‘Shark’, but a ‘Pilot Fish’ and very in tune with the limits, and opportunities that affords me.
Thousands of great traders were thrown out into the wild the last few months. They are disoriented, pissed, nervous, but for the most part, they will end up on their feet and contribute back into the financial system in new ways – small hedge funds, start-up economy and other leadership roles. Some will write books and some will leave the financial world for good.
The financial media world on the other hand will continue to talk about ‘BOTTOMS’ – Was this one? If not when?
I am licking my chops because this bottom talk and regulation talk and babble will go on for 6-12 months. It’s noise and it will drag you in if not careful. In the meantime, I will be working towards one end of what I know is going to be a hugely profitable niche and start cranking.
If you don’t believe me, read my pal Rogers blog as he is back cranking out posts on the same subject, except he has 10 times the experience as me. Lucky you.
Have a great weekend and let’s get to work and turn Lehman’s into LehmanADE! ( I heard that beauty on StockTwits)