The Delusion in Venture Capital…The Interest Rates Made Me Do It?

I had a busy day in New York yesterday.

The views from high up at Hudson Yards in Manhattan are really nice…

I had the pleasure of leading a discussion to a group of colleagues about building a venture capital firm and business with Josh Kopelman, Howard Morgan. Mike Lazerow and David Rose. I love the group picture:

The discussion was all off the record, but obviously we talked a lot about the environment today.

My personal take on everything from a day of meeting family offices and CEO’s and other successful investors ….

The fever is everywhere in venture land.

Companies with product market fit are getting ‘Tigered’ for quick $100-200 million term sheets.

Unicorns are roaming free everywhere

Fred Wilson wrote yesterday about the ‘delusion’ happening at the seed stage (a must read)…where we at Social Leverage live and breathe.

Thank goodness he did.

I have been explaining this to founders for the last three years. I don’t blame founders for taking silly high priced term sheets but I do tell them that ‘momentum’ is a dangerous and pressure cooked mistress…especially early on in a company’s life.

At Social Leverage we continue to focus on seed stage at less than a $10 million post money.

The founders who have executed incredibly well over the years at valuations sub $10 million post money at the seed stage levels have gotten wealthy… as they should.

Zero percent interest rates have been fun for my returns and the returns of many of my friends, but the pressure continues to rise inside the system and I am skeptical that future returns can match the last 10 years for most.