Timberrrr…….

So I am hearing that the Dow Futures has ticked down 500 points from my pal Jim Kingsland and China was down 5 percent on Bank of China writedown and losses.

Thanks Fly as well for this link .

The Dow would be right back down to it’s all time high breakout around 11,600.

I am very happy to have taken my stops as they came and be out of financials, but having seen the confidence crisis shaping up a few weeks ago with the Countrywided takeunder post I wrote, I sure wish I had acted on it.

The opportunities do not come along to the shortside very often. Congrats again to those short and weathering this puke storm.

Jim and I are both thinking tht if another night like this happens overseas and in latin America, the FED will have to intervene before we open tomorrow. It won’t stop the blodshed as the panic is upon us, but could create a swoosh at some point Tuesday or Wednesday.

I am building the list of stocks to own for a ‘swoosh’ down. Shorting into this mess is not something I will do unless the FED just stands around and watches…which it could just do.

Thoughts??

Best ideas??

11 comments

  1. Bruce says:

    I think you’ve nailed the conundrum at the moment Howard. Tough moment. As was fashionable to say amoung ‘imbedded’ journalists, Bush spokespersons, as well as generals, during the beginning of the assualt/seige on Iraq, events are very fluid.

  2. bocagirl says:

    Bernanke is starting to scare me because he talks a good game, but does nothing, and it makes me suspect he doesn’t know what to do. The perceived lack of leadership from the Fed is reducing confidence even further.

    I’ve prepared as best as I can with a few defensive longs, protective puts and going short via FXP, MYY, QID, and SMN. Other than that, what else can I do but see what happens. I would dearly love a short term rally so that I can unload my SPY’s …. hey I can dream.

    Dow futures closed down over 400 points. I have zero inclination to buy any major amount of stock in the next six months, looking to other businesses instead.

    Of course, if the Boca Housewife is your contrary indicator, I suppose my bad mood means a short term bottom is coming and the Fed might lower rates this week :D

    Good luck to all.

  3. bocagirl says:

    Adding… I wouldn’t be anywhere as near well prepared if I didn’t read people smarter than myself like Howard, The Fly, Woody and even that smart young’un Danny. I’m just smart enough to know who I can learn from (thanks) … and who to ignore like Doug Kass, the flip-flopping asshat of the month.

  4. David says:

    Well, another way to look at it is, you can buy some pretty good stocks at very cheap prices tomorrow.
    At least I am about 50% cash with no margin. I do pity those who 110 invested.

  5. Hawk says:

    It seems as if everyone is bearish. Double top on ES mini measures to 1200, NQ has hit it’s downside target for it’s top this morning and still has a minor flag target to go at 1740. Bears will panic and cover when the honey jar gets dry and very few will catch the panic rally due to shell shock. Times like this are a trader’s dream. Be a trader for now. Watch the major levels on the monthly charts, one of those spots will be “it”.

  6. ivanhoff says:

    short the VIX, if it opens at 35. Currently is at 27.18, but everything can happen overnight. Tomorrow will be remembered.

  7. johnjaygebhardt says:

    unfortunately the market can open lower and continue down. i am invested in green energy plays. oil and gold and silver. i hope to stay long all of these ideas. the best thing that can happen for me is to see the market open higher than the futures suggest trapping alot of sellers. there must be some good news somewhere.
    the best advice i can lend to anyone if your not sure what to do tomorrow is if you can do nothing. alot of people say buy a gap down . i am not sure . i would sell the vix either. cant it go to 100?

  8. Jan says:

    Hey boca,

    Are you the same bocagirl that stops into TG’s chatroom, and posts on her blog? I’m closing my position in SDS tomorrow (my only short, unfortunately) and sitting on my hands until the dust “settles” . Should oil/gas bounce a bit, might lighten up a bit there.

    Jan

  9. tom a taxpayer says:

    Tick Tock! Tick Tock! Tick Tock!
Like an episode of ’24’.

    Only 5 hrs until NYSE opening bell. 
Uncle Ben, the clock is ticking.
    
The U.S. dollar has strengthened due to the stock market sell-off around the world. The stronger U.S. dollar gives you the leeway for the Fed rate cut.
    However, this leeway for the Fed rate cut can not be counted on past the opening bell. Once the market opens, the U.S. market will get pummeled like the rest of the world markets. Things may spiral out of control during the day. The U.S. dollar may suffer like the Euro suffered on Monday. Or, the $ may maintain or even strengthen. But that is all a gamble if you wait until after the opening bell rings.

    Announcement of a Fed rate cut before the bell is as close to a sure thing in terms of starting from U.S. dollar strength as anytime over the next two weeks.

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